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More than 6.2 million people were internally displaced across Eastern Africa in 2025, as armed conflict and climate-related disasters combined to deepen humanitarian pressures across the region, according to a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The State of the Climate in Eastern Africa 2025 report documented 6,227,072 internal displacements across nine countries through 639 separate displacement events. Conflict remained by far the biggest driver, accounting for 4,730,816 displacements, or 76% of the total, while disasters triggered another 1,496,256 movements, representing 24%. The crisis was concentrated heavily in Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Sudan recorded 2,677,298 displacements, followed by South Sudan with 1,682,754 and Ethiopia with 1,085,752. Together, the three countries accounted for 87.5% of all internal displacements recorded in the region during 2025.
Conflict remained the biggest driver, but floods displaced more than a million people
While conflict accounted for most displacement across Eastern Africa, climate and weather disasters added another major layer of risk. Floods alone forced 1,035,524 people to move, accounting for 69.2% of all disaster-related displacements recorded during the year. Flooding, landslides and other climate hazards repeatedly damaged homes and essential infrastructure, including roads, bridges and water systems, forcing communities to leave areas exposed to immediate danger. The region’s weather patterns were particularly uneven in 2025. Major climate systems, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclones, influenced rainfall across Eastern Africa.
The March-May and June-September seasons brought significant wet spells to several parts of the region. But the October-December season saw below-average rainfall across eastern Kenya, Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, highlighting how communities were forced to deal with sharply contrasting climate extremes within the same year. Temperatures also remained persistently above average, making 2025 one of the warmest years recorded in Eastern Africa. The prolonged heat added further pressure on agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems and public health, particularly in communities already affected by poverty and conflict.
Climate shocks pushed an already fragile region deeper into crisis
The effects of conflict and climate extremes extended well beyond the immediate destruction caused by floods or violence. Food insecurity remained severe, with around 42 million people across six IGAD member states, namely Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, facing crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity.
Poor rainfall during the October-December season contributed to crop failures, deteriorating pasture and water shortages, particularly in eastern parts of the region. At the same time, floods increased the risk of waterborne diseases, while drought and extreme heat intensified water scarcity and other health pressures.
The report also shows how climate stress can worsen existing social and security tensions. In pastoral areas, below-normal rainfall reduced access to water and grazing land, forcing herders to move livestock across administrative and national boundaries and increasing competition over scarce resources.
This was particularly evident along the Dollow-Beled Hawo-Mandera corridor linking Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. In South Sudan, flooding pushed displaced herders into farming areas, contributing to tensions and cattle-related violence. Meanwhile, flooding along Somalia’s Shabelle and Hiraan rivers destroyed crops and damaged infrastructure, disrupting access to food and essential services.
The assessment also linked flood-induced displacement across several countries to an increased risk of gender-based violence, illustrating how climate disasters can create vulnerabilities long after people are forced from their homes.
Report calls for a shift from reacting to disasters to preparing for them
The findings highlight the increasingly complex relationship between climate change, conflict and human displacement in Eastern Africa. While conflict remains the region’s primary driver of displacement, climate disasters are increasingly making already vulnerable communities more exposed to humanitarian and security crises.
ICPAC’s assessment argues that responding after disasters strike will not be enough as climate risks intensify. It calls for sustained investment in climate services, stronger institutional coordination and greater integration of climate risks into government policies, development planning and decision-making.
The report emphasises the need to move towards anticipatory, inclusive and risk-informed systems that allow governments and communities to prepare for climate shocks before they develop into full-scale humanitarian emergencies.
For Eastern Africa, the challenge is therefore no longer simply responding to either conflict or climate disasters separately. The 6.2 million displacements recorded in 2025 show how the two crises increasingly overlap, with floods, droughts, heat and unpredictable rainfall adding pressure to societies already struggling with violence, food insecurity and displacement.
References:
https://www.icpac.net/publications/state-of-the-climate-in-eastern-africa-2025
https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/state-climate-eastern-africa-2025
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