Rising Heat, Rising Risk, UN Report Says Asia Pacific Enters a New Era of Climate Threats

Asia and the Pacific are entering a period where rising temperatures are shaping a new disaster landscape. According to the UN ESCAP Asia Pacific Disaster Report 2025, extreme heat is now driving the fastest-growing climate hazards in the region. Heatwaves that were once considered seasonal have become more prolonged and widespread. In 2024 alone, more than 180 climate-related disasters were recorded across ESCAP member states. This includes heat events that affected millions in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. The region already accounts for over half of the world’s recorded disasters, showing how deep the risks have become.

With 2024 officially declared the hottest year ever measured globally by the World Meteorological Organisation, Asia and the Pacific are now seeing the compounding effects of warming oceans, intense storms, glacier melt and land degradation. The report warns that many of these trends will intensify under high emissions scenarios, particularly the SSP5 8.5 pathway used widely in scientific risk planning.

Rising Temperatures and a Rapidly Changing Disaster Riskscape

Recent trends show a rapid expansion of heat-related disasters. Bangladesh experienced one of the most severe heatwaves in April and May 2024, affecting approximately 33 million people as reported by EM DAT, the international disaster database maintained by CRED, accessible at. India recorded more than 700 heat-related fatalities across 17 states during the same year. Pakistan experienced temperatures above 52°C in Sindh province, a figure confirmed by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

ESCAP uses the heat index to project future risk because humidity significantly intensifies heat stress. A heat index of 35°C is already considered hazardous. At 41°C, the likelihood of heat stroke increases sharply. Under the SSP5 8.5 scenario described in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, many parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands could see a dramatic rise in the number of days that exceed these thresholds. Once episodic heat may soon become a persistent seasonal reality. ESCAP’s maps in the report show severe heat days expanding across India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and several Pacific small island states.

Heat Impacts on Health, Cities, Economies and Food Systems

The health burden of extreme heat is increasing across the region. The World Health Organisation explains how heat disrupts the human body’s cooling mechanism and raises the risk of cardiovascular failure, dehydration and kidney injury. Children, the elderly and outdoor workers remain the most vulnerable groups. ESCAP warns that many hospitals in South and Southeast Asia are also located in multi-hazard zones, raising concerns about their ability to remain functional during concurrent heat events and floods.

Cities face even greater risks because urban structures trap heat. The urban heat island effect has raised temperatures in major Asian cities by several degrees. ESCAP notes that cities like Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Manila, Seoul and Jakarta could experience an additional rise of between 2°C and 7°C due to this effect combined with climate warming. A report by the World Bank found temperature gaps of up to 7°C between wealthy, greener neighbourhoods and low-income, densely built areas.

The economic impact of rising heat is substantial. The International Labour Organisation reports that heat stress could lead to the loss of more than 8 million full-time job equivalents in Asia and the Pacific by 2030. Agriculture is under severe strain as crop yields decline and rural labour productivity drops. ESCAP’s Agricultural Heat Stress Score identifies Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh as consistently high-risk countries. The food and energy water systems of many regions are already destabilising due to heat-driven droughts and changing rainfall patterns.

Energy systems are also highly vulnerable. The International Energy Agency warns that electricity demand for cooling could triple by 2050 if heat trends continue. At the same time, high temperatures reduce the efficiency of power generation and weaken transmission lines, creating the possibility of large-scale electricity shortages during heatwaves.

Retreating Glaciers, Rising Seas and Transforming Earth Systems

The report highlights how glaciers, oceans, land and the atmosphere are undergoing interconnected changes due to global warming. Oceans have absorbed about 91% of excess heat according to the UN Environment Programme, documented in UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report. In 2023 and 2024, global sea surface temperatures reached historic highs, driving more intense tropical cyclones across Asia.

Glacier melt is accelerating across High Mountain Asia, which stores more ice than anywhere outside the polar regions. A study published by the World Glacier Monitoring Service confirms that glaciers have already lost about 5% of their volume this century. ESCAP estimates that countries such as Mongolia, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, Myanmar and the Islamic Republic of Iran could lose more than 70% of their glacier mass by 2060 under the high emissions pathway. This raises the risk of glacial lake outburst floods. Nearly 9.3 million people live near glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.

Sea level rise presents immediate challenges for Pacific Island nations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects significant increases under SSP5 8.5, with detailed figures available in the IPCC AR6 report. ESCAP identifies American Samoa, Samoa, Tonga, Japan and the Philippines as regions likely to experience some of the highest increases by 2050. Enhanced rainfall intensity is also expected across Bangladesh, Samoa, Myanmar and Brunei Darussalam as the atmosphere holds more moisture due to warming.

Building Heat Resilience Through Policy, Planning and Regional Cooperation

ESCAP argues that most heat actions in Asia are still reactive. Warnings are issued when temperatures begin to spike, and relief support is provided once impacts are visible. What the region needs now are long-term strategies that integrate science, health planning, infrastructure resilience and social protection. Guidance on heat health action can be found in resources from the Global Heat Health Information Network.

Financing is another important pillar. ESCAP notes that building heat resilience does not require new dedicated funds. Instead, it should be integrated into existing disaster risk reduction and adaptation budgets. Their 2023 Disaster Report explains that countries should consider budgeting about 0.49% of GDP for transformative adaptation. Regional cooperation remains vital. Shared systems, satellite tools and interoperable alerts can reduce risks significantly. ESCAP’s Regional Space Applications Programme can help countries strengthen heat early warning capabilities. These approaches together can help countries move from short-term responses to long-term resilience.

References:

Rising heat, rising risk – policy pathways for regional resilience | ESCAP

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2024-hottest-year-ever-recorded

Public EM-DAT

Seeing red: India had over 700 heat deaths in 2024, much higher than the official toll, claim scientists

Pakistan temperatures cross 52 °C in heatwave | Reuters

Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

Heat and health

What the Urban Heat Island Effect Means for East Asia’s Cities

Working on a warmer planet: The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work

The Future of Cooling – Analysis – IEA

Emissions Gap Report

World Glacier Monitoring Service

Global Heat Health Information Network

Seizing the Moment: Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023

ESCAP: Building Disaster Resilience in Asia and the Pacific with Space Applications | UN-SPIDER Knowledge Portal

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