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Climate change could sharply worsen summer air pollution in the coming decades, potentially exposing millions more people to unhealthy air even in countries that currently enjoy relatively cleaner conditions, according to new research published by scientists from the University of Waterloo. The study warns that rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and changes in atmospheric circulation could make air pollution episodes more frequent and severe by the end of the century. Researchers estimate that by 2100, nearly 100 million Americans could be exposed to unhealthy summer air, roughly seven times more than in 2000, unless stronger action is taken to reduce both greenhouse gas emissions and conventional air pollutants.
Climate change is making pollution harder to control
Air pollution is already considered one of the world’s deadliest environmental threats, linked to lung disease, heart problems, respiratory infections and millions of premature deaths each year. According to the study, climate change is likely to worsen the problem because hotter temperatures and altered weather conditions can increase the formation and accumulation of harmful pollutants such as ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter.
Researchers found that climate-driven changes could significantly increase the number of air quality alert days in future decades, particularly during summer. The study estimates that health risks associated with poor air quality alerts could double for vulnerable groups, including older adults, children, pregnant women and people with heart or lung conditions. Scientists say warmer temperatures accelerate chemical reactions in the atmosphere, allowing pollutants to accumulate more rapidly, especially during heatwaves and stagnant weather conditions.
The findings are especially concerning because climate change could begin reversing decades of progress made through air quality regulations. Researchers warn that warming alone could erase a significant share of gains achieved through pollution controls over the past 50 years.
Wildfires and extreme heat could intensify the problem
The researchers say their projections may actually underestimate future risks because the study did not fully account for worsening wildfire activity. Wildfire smoke is already one of the largest contributors to fine particulate pollution across parts of North America, and climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of fires in many regions.
The study points to the catastrophic 2023 Canadian wildfire season, when smoke spread across large parts of the United States and Canada, pushing several cities into some of the worst air quality conditions recorded globally. Scientists say hotter and drier conditions linked to climate change are making such smoke events more likely in the future.
Heatwaves are also expected to play a major role. During periods of prolonged heat, high-pressure systems often trap pollutants close to the ground while warmer temperatures accelerate ozone formation. Researchers say this combination creates dangerous conditions where heat stress and air pollution amplify each other’s health impacts. Recent studies have already warned that extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense across many parts of the world.
Vulnerable communities could face the biggest burden
The research highlights that not everyone will be equally protected from worsening air quality. Outdoor workers, homeless populations and low-income communities may face higher exposure because they often have limited access to clean indoor environments or air filtration systems. Currently, only around 15-20% of Americans take protective measures against poor air quality at least once a year, according to the study.
Researchers say adaptation measures such as improved ventilation, air filtration systems and access to cleaner indoor spaces will become increasingly important if air pollution episodes become more common. They also stress that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could significantly limit future health risks. According to the study, stronger climate policies capable of preventing dangerous warming could stabilise air quality risks around mid-century and avoid much of the projected increase in exposure.
Scientists involved in the research argue that climate change and air pollution can no longer be treated as separate issues. Rising temperatures are increasingly interacting with pollution, heatwaves and wildfire smoke in ways that could reshape public health risks over the coming decades.
References:
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c12522
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00841-9
Banner image: Photo by Dominik Lalic on Unsplash
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