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India’s southwest monsoon has slipped back into a weak phase after a brief spell of widespread rainfall revived hopes of a stronger season, pushing the country’s cumulative rainfall deficit back up to 18%. The dry spell comes just days after intense showers had reduced the nationwide shortfall from nearly 40% at the end of June to 14% by July 9. Weather officials now warn that subdued rainfall is likely to persist across large parts of the country over the coming week, raising fresh concerns over crop sowing, soil moisture and water availability during the critical kharif season.
Monsoon loses momentum after brief revival
The southwest monsoon had made a remarkable recovery in early July, aided by heavy rainfall over parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Jharkhand. The active spell also helped the monsoon cover the entire country by July 9, almost on schedule, bringing much-needed relief after one of the weakest starts to the season in recent decades.
However, the improvement proved short-lived. With rainfall weakening once again, the country’s seasonal deficit has climbed back to 18%. The sharpest shortfall has been recorded over east and northeast India, where rainfall remains 37% below normal because of weak precipitation over Bihar, Jharkhand and five northeastern states.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of the northeast, West Bengal and Bihar during the next two to three days, along with isolated heavy rainfall over eastern Uttar Pradesh. But meteorologists say these spells are unlikely to erase the overall deficit created by the current weak phase of the monsoon.
Unfavourable weather patterns are weakening the monsoon
Meteorologists attribute the slowdown to a combination of atmospheric conditions that are suppressing widespread rainfall. One of the main factors is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently in an unfavourable phase for India. The weak MJO has reduced the formation of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, which normally help drive active monsoon conditions across the country.
The developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is also expected to influence the remainder of the season. Although recent heavy rainfall temporarily offset some of its impact, weather experts say El Niño could continue to weaken monsoon circulation during the coming weeks, especially if favourable weather systems fail to develop over the Indian Ocean.
The IMD has already projected below-normal rainfall for July, with precipitation expected to remain below 94% of the long period average. Forecasts also indicate subdued rainfall over the plains of northwest India, west central India and much of southern peninsular India during the next six to seven days.
Dry spell raises concerns for agriculture
The return of weak monsoon conditions comes at a crucial stage of the kharif sowing season. Crops such as rice, cotton, soybean, maize and pulses depend heavily on consistent rainfall during July for germination and early growth.
A prolonged dry spell following recent rains could reduce soil moisture and delay crop development in several rain-fed regions. Earlier this month, government data showed that kharif sowing remained well below last year’s level as erratic rainfall delayed planting in many states.
While meteorologists expect rainfall activity to improve later in the season, they caution that the coming weeks will be critical. If the current dry phase continues for too long, the monsoon may struggle to recover fully, increasing pressure on agriculture, reservoirs and water resources across several parts of the country.
References:
https://newsonair.gov.in/imd-says-southwest-monsoon-covered-entire-country
https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20260711_pr_5145.pdf
https://www.pib.gov.in/newsite/erelcontent.aspx?relid=62398
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/English%20Press%20Release%20July%202026.pdf
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