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The Sundarbans has long stood as one of South Asia’s most important natural barriers, protecting coastlines from cyclones, storing carbon, and sustaining rich biodiversity and fragile livelihoods across India and Bangladesh. But new research suggests that some parts of this mangrove ecosystem may now be taking longer to recover from repeated environmental stress, raising concerns about how well the forest can continue to withstand the growing pressures of climate change.
Study finds declining resilience in 10 to 15% of the Sundarbans
A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment analysed 25 years of satellite data to understand how the Sundarbans has responded to repeated ecological stress over time. The researchers found that around 610 to 990 square kilometres of the mangrove forest, or roughly 10 to 15%, showed signs of declining resilience. These vulnerable areas were concentrated mainly in the central and southeastern parts of the forest, where the ecosystem appears to be losing some of its ability to return to earlier conditions after disturbance.
The study also identified one to eight major perturbations across different parts of the forest using 250 metre resolution data, showing that many areas have been repeatedly exposed to stress over the years. In ecological terms, resilience refers to how quickly and effectively an ecosystem can recover after disturbances such as cyclones, tidal flooding, heat, salinity shifts, or changes in rainfall. A decline in that recovery ability can signal that the forest is becoming more fragile over time, even if it still appears green from above.
Forest structure, species traits, and repeated disturbances are shaping recovery
The study found that the Sundarbans’ ability to recover is closely linked to its forest structure and ecological composition. Among the strongest factors associated with better resilience were maximum canopy height, followed by specific leaf area and precipitation. Areas with more structural diversity and ecologically stronger mangrove traits appeared to recover more effectively, while places exposed to repeated disturbances were more likely to show weaker recovery patterns.
That finding is important because the Sundarbans is facing pressure from multiple directions at once. Rising salinity, reduced freshwater flow, sea level rise, stronger cyclones, shifting rainfall, erosion, and human activity are all reshaping conditions across the delta. Other research in recent years has also pointed to stress in the region’s mangroves. This analysis found that around 77% of the Sundarbans showed signs of degraded mangrove health, while another study reported changes in canopy structure and declines in above-ground carbon storage over the past two decades. Together, these findings suggest that the issue is not just forest loss, but a deeper weakening of ecological function in some areas.
Why this matters for people, biodiversity, and climate resilience
The weakening of resilience in the Sundarbans is not just a forest story. It is also a climate adaptation and livelihood issue. The mangroves of the Sundarbans play a major role in reducing the impact of storm surges and cyclones, protecting coastlines from erosion, supporting fisheries and forest-based livelihoods, and storing significant amounts of carbon. If parts of the forest begin losing the ability to recover from repeated shocks, those benefits could also become less dependable in the years ahead.
The findings also carry weight for conservation planning. The researchers suggest that restoration and protection efforts should not focus only on preserving forest cover, but also on maintaining the right species composition and structural diversity that help ecosystems recover after disturbance. In a place as climate-exposed as the Sundarbans, that distinction matters. The question is no longer only how much forest remains, but whether the forest that remains is still strong enough to heal itself after every new shock.
References:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03305-5
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