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India is among the most vulnerable large economies to worsening food insecurity as global temperatures rise, according to a new analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). The study warns that climate change could steadily weaken access to adequate and nutritious food, especially in countries already facing pressure on farming systems, water resources and affordability. India’s baseline food security score stands at 5.31, well below the global average of 6.74, and behind countries such as Brazil (6.72), Mexico (6.36) and Indonesia (5.87). The findings suggest that even moderate warming could deepen inequalities in global food systems and leave millions more people struggling to secure stable diets.
India’s food security outlook worsens as temperatures rise
The study places India among the most exposed large economies in a new food security index covering 162 countries, which assesses food systems across four pillars: availability, accessibility, utilisation and sustainability. India’s baseline score of 5.31 already sits below the global mean, but the outlook worsens sharply under future warming. According to the analysis, India’s score is projected to fall to 4.96 at 1.5°C of global warming and further to 4.52 at 2°C, pointing to growing risks to both food access and resilience.
The report suggests that India’s vulnerability is shaped by more than just temperature rise. A large share of the country’s population still depends directly or indirectly on climate-sensitive agriculture, while food affordability and nutritional access remain uneven across regions. That means repeated climate shocks such as heatwaves, rainfall disruption or crop failures could have consequences far beyond the farm, affecting household budgets, diet quality and long term food stability.
A widening global divide in who can eat well
The analysis shows that the burden of food insecurity is already heavily tilted toward lower-income countries, and climate change is expected to widen that divide. Globally, about 4.56 billion people, or nearly 59% of humanity, currently live in countries scoring below the global average of 6.74 on the food security scale. At 2°C of warming, the study estimates that an additional 291 million people could fall below that threshold, increasing the number of people struggling to access sufficient and nutritious food.
By contrast, about 3.19 billion people, or 41% of the global population, currently live in countries scoring above the global average. The highest-ranked countries in the index were Iceland (9.26), Denmark (9.17), Austria (9.15), Ireland (9.13) and Belgium (9.07). At the other end were Afghanistan (3.31), Madagascar (3.15), Haiti (2.57), Democratic Republic of Congo (2.51) and Somalia (1.29). The study notes that lower-income countries are expected to face the steepest declines, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where climate exposure is high, and food systems are already fragile.
Why economic growth alone may not protect food systems
One of the report’s more striking findings is that economic growth, while helpful, does not automatically make food systems resilient to repeated climate stress. According to the analysis, every additional $1,000 in per capita GDP is associated on average with roughly 0.2 additional points on the food security scale. But that improvement is not evenly spread across all four pillars, and gains are much weaker when it comes to the long term sustainability of food systems.
That matters because climate-driven disruptions are not limited to crop production alone. The study warns that repeated shocks can affect food imports, supply chains, affordability and dietary diversity, meaning even wealthier economies are not fully insulated. China, for example, has a much higher baseline score of 7.62, yet is still projected to decline to 7.06 under a 2°C warming scenario. For India, where food security is already under pressure from population size, climate exposure and unequal access, the findings suggest that adaptation will need to go beyond growth and focus more directly on resilience, affordability and nutrition.
References:
https://www.iied.org/22705iied
https://www.iied.org/food-security-crumble-face-climate-change
Banner image: Photo by Manjunath Kammar on Unsplash
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