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A strengthening El Niño could lead to around 2,39,000 extra heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, including an estimated 15,800 in India, according to a new analysis by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The estimate looks at how many more people could die from heat during the current El Niño compared with what would normally be expected in a typical year. Researchers also expect the event to push global land temperatures about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, with countries across the Global South likely to face some of the biggest impacts.
India could see thousands of additional heat deaths
The study estimates that India could record about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths during the six months. Around 7,400 of these are projected to occur between December 2026 and February 2027, meaning a substantial share of the estimated mortality could occur outside India’s traditional peak summer months.
The projections are not a forecast of the total number of people who will die from heat in India. They represent deaths above what researchers would expect during a normal year under comparable seasonal conditions. The analysis accounts for differences in local climate, vulnerability and the ability of populations to adapt to heat.
Globally, the largest projected increase is in Africa’s Sahel region, where about 66,800 additional heat-related deaths are expected between September and February. Nigeria alone could account for 31,400, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000. Indonesia is projected to see another 19,300 deaths, while Brazil could record about 13,300.
El Niño could bring more extreme heat
The Climate Impact Lab describes the current event as a “super El Niño” and estimates that it could produce about 44% more extremely hot days than would normally be expected. Researchers say the temperatures associated with the event resemble conditions that climate change could make more common over the next two decades.
The World Meteorological Organisation, however, does not use the term “super El Niño”. It classifies El Niño events according to their intensity and has forecast that the current event could reach “very strong” levels towards the end of 2026 and persist through February 2027. The agency has also cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine how severe its effects will be in individual countries, as regional impacts depend on geography, season and other climate drivers.
The current episode began in June 2026, and unusually warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific have continued to strengthen. Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain around 1.2°C above normal during the coming months, increasing exposure to potentially dangerous heat in several regions.
Heat warnings and preparedness could save lives
The mortality projections also point to the importance of preparing before temperatures rise. Researchers have called for stronger heat-warning systems and targeted heat action plans that can identify vulnerable populations and trigger measures such as outreach visits and improved access to drinking water.
The analysis estimates a larger figure of about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the first nine months of the El Niño event, from June 2026 through February 2027. The 239,000 figure applies specifically to the September 2026-February 2027 period, making the two estimates different time windows rather than competing projections.
The researchers stress that the numbers are projections rather than a predetermined death toll. Actual mortality will depend on how temperatures evolve and how effectively governments and communities respond. For countries such as India, the findings highlight the need to strengthen heat preparedness well before the next period of extreme temperatures arrives.
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Banner image: Photo by NASA Hubble Space Telescope on Unsplash
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