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The global push to reduce dependence on oil could accelerate sharply as the Gulf energy crisis drives countries to expand biofuel use, but the shift may bring new pressures on food supplies, land and water. Global biofuel output is projected to rise nearly 70% from 2025 levels by 2030, according to a study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council. Governments including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States and the European Union have proposed or begun raising biofuel-blending requirements as they seek alternatives to conventional fuels. However, the study warns that scaling up production could create environmental and food-security challenges if the expansion relies heavily on crops.
Energy crisis accelerates biofuel ambitions
The study’s projection comes amid heightened concerns about energy security following the Iran war and disruptions to oil supplies. Rising crude prices have made biofuels more attractive to governments looking to diversify fuel sources and reduce exposure to volatile fossil-fuel markets.
Crude oil prices have risen about 40%, while sugar and corn prices have increased by about 20%. These price movements are adding pressure to energy and agricultural markets at the same time that countries are considering stronger biofuel mandates.
Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States and the European Union are among the major economies that have proposed or initiated higher blending targets. Biofuel blending involves mixing fuels made from biological materials with conventional petrol or diesel, increasing the share of renewable-origin fuel used in transport.
Crop-based biofuels could intensify food and land pressures
Many conventional biofuels are produced from food crops such as corn and sugarcane. Expanding their use can increase demand for agricultural commodities, potentially adding pressure to food markets and competing with other uses of farmland.
The study warns that if all proposed mandates are implemented, biofuel production could require an additional 36 million hectares of land by 2030, an area roughly comparable to Germany. The authors caution that a rapid expansion could contribute to food insecurity, land degradation and greater water use.
The concerns are particularly relevant where crops used for fuel also form part of food and feed supply chains. Increased demand for these crops could affect how land and agricultural resources are allocated, although the scale of the effects will depend on which feedstocks countries use and how production is managed.
Waste-based fuels offer a different pathway
The study distinguishes conventional, first-generation biofuels, which are generally made from food crops, from fuels produced using waste materials. Biofuels derived from waste can help reduce some of the environmental pressures associated with crop-based production, although their sustainability depends on the materials used and how they are processed.
The authors warn that governments’ efforts to scale up biofuel blending could move faster than the environmental safeguards and land-use planning needed to manage the consequences. Expanding production without adequate protections could shift some of the costs of an energy crisis onto agriculture, ecosystems and water resources.
The projected growth therefore raises questions not only about how much biofuel countries will produce, but also about the feedstocks they choose and the safeguards they put in place. As governments seek alternatives to oil, the study highlights the need to consider the effects of biofuel expansion on food security and natural resources alongside energy security.
References:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/09/problem-biofuels-response-gulf-energy-supply-shock
Banner image: Photo by Engin Akyurt on Unsplash
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