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A developing strong El Niño could push global temperatures above 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels for at least one month in early 2027, according to new projections by researchers at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. If realised, it would mark the first time monthly global temperatures cross the 2°C threshold, underscoring how natural climate variability is amplifying the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists caution that while a single month above 2°C would not mean the world has permanently breached the Paris Agreement target, it would highlight the growing influence of climate change and the increasing likelihood of more frequent extreme heat events.
Strong El Niño could briefly push warming beyond 2°C
The projections estimate a 35 to 40% probability that the global average temperature will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one month in early 2027. The likelihood has increased in recent weeks as meteorologists upgraded forecasts for the current El Niño, which is expected to rank among the strongest on record. According to Ben Kirtman, dean of the Rosenstiel School, the probability of a temporary breach is now “really large” because of the combined effect of an exceptionally strong El Niño and the long-term warming trend driven by human activities.
Scientists argue that the Paris Agreement temperature target is a long-term average of warming over decades, not just a single month or year’s worth of temperatures. But they say even one breach a month would be a huge scientific milestone, showing how close the world’s climate is to crossing one of its key boundaries.
Researchers also note that the recent rise in global temperatures could in part be due to reduced aerosol pollution, which previously obscured some of the warming from greenhouse gas emissions. We see more of the actual warming coming through as cleaner air policies reduce sulphate aerosols.
Extreme weather risks expected to intensify worldwide
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is characterised by the appearance of abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon alters atmospheric circulation across the world and can generate heatwaves, droughts and wildfires in some regions and heavier rainfall and floods in others.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño is expected to strengthen rapidly through the second half of 2026. Forecasts indicate an 80% chance that it will become a very strong event during October to December, with conditions likely to persist into spring 2027. Such events have historically been associated with record global temperatures and widespread weather extremes.
Experts observe that while the warm phase typically reaches peak intensity during the latter months of a calendar year, its peak influence on global thermal averages often manifests during the subsequent year. This delay occurs because the Pacific Ocean gradually discharges thermal energy into the atmosphere, a phenomenon that leads researchers to project that 2027, rather than 2026, will likely emerge as the warmest year on record.
India among regions likely to face hotter and drier conditions
Atmospheric shifts triggered by the emerging El Niño are currently impacting regional climates. Europe has contended with extended heat events and catastrophic blazes, while numerous developing nations brace for volatility in agricultural output, hydrological reserves, and commodity costs. Financial analysts signal that an intense El Niño phase may drive inflationary pressure as diminished harvests and heightened power requirements strain global markets.
India is also expected to feel its effects. El Niño typically weakens the southwest monsoon, increasing the risk of below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and agricultural stress across large parts of the country. India has already experienced one of its driest Junes in 12 years, raising concerns over water availability, crop production and electricity demand as cooling needs rise.
Climate scientists warn that while El Niño events differ in their specific impacts, the confluence of a potentially record-breaking El Niño with a warming global climate suggests the world is entering a period of heightened risk. They recommend that governments implement preparedness measures for a greater likelihood of extreme heat, droughts, flooding and wildfire conditions over the coming months, while continuing efforts to curb long-term global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
References:
https://nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/today/plumes_gmt_nmme_gmt_plume.today.png
https://news.miami.edu/rosenstiel/stories/2026/06/the-enso-update.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yzk5rqyr4o
Banner image: Photo by Zoltan Tasi on Unsplash
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