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A viral tweet shared on X by a user named J. Vinos stated that “The ozone hole is the 5th smallest since 1990 due to the weakness of this year’s Southern Polar Vortex. But the ozone hole is the same size as it was in 1989, the year the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs took effect. Climate cures don’t work as expected.” The post has been widely shared, questioning the effectiveness of global environmental treaties aimed at ozone recovery.
Claim post:
Claim: A viral post on X claims that this year’s Antarctic ozone hole is the 5th smallest since 1990 due to a weak polar vortex, but is still the same size as in 1989, suggesting that climate treaties like the Montreal Protocol “don’t work.”
Fact: False. The claim that the ozone hole is the same size as it was in 1989 is inaccurate and misleading. Satellite measurements from NASA and NOAA show that the ozone hole over Antarctica has significantly decreased in both size and depth since the late 20th century. The 2024 average hole area was around 16.4 million square kilometres, far smaller than the extreme values recorded in the early 1990s and 2000s, when it often exceeded 20–25 million square kilometres.
This long-term recovery is a direct result of the Montreal Protocol, the global treaty signed in 1987 to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances. According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), concentrations of these harmful chemicals in the atmosphere have fallen by over 99% since the agreement entered into force.
Scientific assessments by WMO confirm that the Antarctic ozone layer is steadily recovering and is projected to return to its pre-1980 levels by around 2066 if current regulations remain in place. Researchers note that while annual variations persist due to natural factors such as stratospheric temperatures and polar vortex dynamics, the overall trend leaves no doubt that the ozone layer is on a clear path to recovery, not stagnation.
What NASA and NOAA data actually show
Contrary to the claim, data from NASA and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that the size of the Antarctic ozone hole has varied annually due to natural weather patterns. Still, its long-term trend clearly points toward recovery. According to NASA’s 2024 ozone monitoring report, the average ozone hole area was 8 million square kilometres, smaller than most years in the 1990s and early 2000s when it regularly exceeded 20 million square kilometres. Scientists attribute the year-to-year fluctuations primarily to the strength of the polar vortex and stratospheric temperatures, not to a failure of the Montreal Protocol.
Ozone recovery is underway.
Decades of data confirm that the Montreal Protocol, adopted in 1987 and enforced from 1989, has significantly reduced the emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances (ODS).
A UN-backed assessment by NOAA found that the ozone layer over Antarctica is projected to return to its pre-1980 levels by around 2066 if current policies remain in place. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also confirmed that atmospheric concentrations of key ODS have declined by more than 99%, demonstrating that global action has been effective.
Why comparing 1989 and 2025 is misleading
Scientists note that comparing ozone hole sizes across individual years without context can misrepresent the long-term trend. In 1989, the Antarctic ozone hole measured roughly 19 million square kilometres larger than in recent years. Short-term fluctuations caused by volcanic eruptions, polar temperatures, and wind circulation can temporarily expand or contract the hole, but they do not reflect the overall recovery pattern. NASA notes that while some years show slightly larger or smaller holes, the general recovery trajectory remains consistent and scientifically verified.
References:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2024-antarctic-ozone-hole-ranks-7th-smallest-since-recovery-began
https://ourworldindata.org/ozone-layer
https://ozone.unep.org/2024-ozone-hole-ranked-7th-smallest-recovery-began
https://www.unep.org/ozonaction/who-we-are/about-montreal-protocol
https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/executivesummary
Banner image: Photo by ActionVance on Unsplash
