Climate Change and El Niño Impact on Coconut Cultivation in Sri Lanka 

Climate change significantly affects many agricultural crops through altered precipitation patterns, extreme temperatures, and a number of other extreme weather events. These changes can lead to shifts in growing seasons, disruptions in crop yields, and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. Adaptation strategies, sustainable practices, and technological innovations are crucial for mitigating these impacts and ensuring food security. 

Coconut is one of the significant export crops in Sri Lanka. This article discusses the impact of climate change on coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka.

Coconut Cultivation in Sri Lanka

Coconut cultivation is a major crop in Sri Lanka, with coconut palms covering a substantial portion of the country’s agricultural landscape. Coconut occupies 20% of Sri Lankan arable land, and the majority is operated on a small scale.

Coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka is distributed across various regions, with specific areas being more conducive to coconut plant growth. In many districts, including North Western Province, which majorly belongs to the coconut triangle in Sri Lanka, and coastal region areas with well-drained soil that are particularly suitable for coconut palms, the distribution of coconut cultivation is widespread in the country. 

There are several coconut varieties in Sri Lanka, each with unique characteristics. These include king coconut, a popular variety for its sweet water. Coconut has a deep bond with the Sri Lankan community in many ways. Coconut is a main ingredient in Sri Lankan meals, with approximately 129 coconuts consumed per year by each person in Sri Lanka. In Sri Lanka, 15% of the daily calorie needs of an individual are supplied by coconut.

Various coconut-based products contribute to Sri Lanka’s economy, including coconut oil, handwork, ropes, fibre, desiccated coconut, coconut milk, and coconut-based snacks. Sri Lanka exports most of these coconut-based products to international markets, contributing to its foreign exchange earnings.

With this, coconut cultivation provides employment opportunities for many people, from planting and maintenance to harvesting and processing.

Coconut cultivation plays a crucial role in the livelihood of many Sri Lankans and contributes significantly to the country’s agricultural and economic sectors. From 1996 to 2010, the country’s annual coconut production was 2673 million. 80% of this production was consumed locally, and the rest was added to the export market. In 2021, coconut exports accounted for 6.83% of total merchandise exports. In 2018, Sri Lanka was the fourth-largest producer of coconuts in the world. But in 2020, Brazil could reach fourth place, and Sri Lanka would become the fifth largest coconut producer in the world.

Here are all the statistics and data on coconut-related exports in Sri Lanka (2021).

Challenges to Coconut Cultivation in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, coconut cultivation faces several challenges, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. 

Climate Change Impacts on Coconut Cultivation

In Sri Lanka, all three climatic zones have a high distribution of coconut cultivation. The intermediate zone contributes the highest coconut production in the country. It accounts for 50% of the country’s coconut production. Wet and dry zones contribute 30% and 20% of coconut production, respectively. 

So, the most preferable conditions for coconut cultivation are in the intermediate zone. Coconut cultivation is more successful and effective under a mean annual temperature of 27°C–29°C and rainfall of 1250–2500 mm per year. Therefore, situations with increased temperatures and water scarcity that lead to climate change negatively affect the yield and health of coconut cultivation. 

When the coconut plantations were naturally exposed to heat stress, while there was no water stress, there was a significant reduction in fruit yield, though the female flowers and the pollen were not impacted by heat stress. According to researchers, the organic phase in the reproductive stage is most sensitive to high-temperature conditions, and that is why the fruit yield decreases even though the female flower and pollen quality are not affected. Here is the research article on that.

Also, the research shows that water scarcity negatively impacts coconut cultivation as much as high temperatures. Water dramatically affects the growth of coconut seedlings, and the stress developed by moisture limitation is caused by soil characteristics such as texture and compaction. Here is the research article. Climate change affects soil quality directly through extreme weather events. High rainfalls can cause soil erosion, and this causes the washing away of nutrients and soil organic carbon. This may cause damage to the water quality as well. Also, longer droughts decrease the moisture in the soil and the pH of the soil. These things can directly affect the productivity of coconut cultivation and even the health of the coconut trees. Here, to read more about climate change’s impact on soil. Also, water scarcity occurs with drought; leaf production is reduced, which causes early ageing and collapse. These damages interrupt the photosynthesis of the plant and reduce its yield. 

Also, high rainfall impacted coconut cultivation as an extreme weather event. The research has revealed that highly high rainfall events during the first four months after inflorescence opening negatively influenced the productivity of coconut cultivation, especially in dry and intermediate zones. Here is more on that.

A higher carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is one of the leading causes of climate change. Higher carbon dioxide levels help many plants grow more quickly and positively affect their lives. With climate change, increasing temperatures can disturb the growth of coconut plants. However, some weeds are more competitive in hot and dry conditions. Some of the weeds can tolerate higher temperatures than the main crop. So, in the competition between weeds and crop plants, weeds are more likely to win. Weed may extract more fertilizer and carbon from the soil, so coconut plants will get less. This can interrupt the coconut yield as well as the plant’s health.

Many agricultural insect pests like warmer temperatures. Higher temperatures can drive their reproduction. Their eggs may hatch faster than in normal conditions in higher temperatures. Also, climate change creates new ecological niches that allow insect pests to establish and spread in higher areas and spread and shift from one region to another. So, the crop is damaged due to insect pests increasing with climate change. Rhinoceros beetles, coconut mites, red palm weevils, white grubs, and black-headed caterpillars are the main insect pests of coconut cultivation.

Disease spreading rate within coconut plantations can be accelerated by climate change. Warming temperatures shorten the pathogen’s incubation period, resulting in increased abundance of the pathogen over a growing season. Also, higher temperatures and high humidity are linked to enhanced disease severity. Also, climate change can expand a disease to new geographical areas that haven’t had the disease before. Under climate change, host plants increase their resistance to overcome quickly. However, this results in a great chance of pathogens evolving to overcome host-plant resistance.

Research Center of Coconut Cultivation Institute

We contacted Mr. Upali Rathnayaka from the Field Research Center of Coconut Cultivation Institute, Makandura Research Station (MRS), Makandura, Kurunegala District. He explained that dry weather conditions damage not only the quantity of the crop but also its quality. When the drought season arrives, the coconut tree faces water scarcity. The moisture in the soil is reduced. The tree is trying to tolerate this condition and protect itself without dying. They initially reduced the growth of their reproduction parts, especially fruits. When there is not enough water supply, the fruits can be dropped. The quality of the kernel decreases with size and flavour. The subsequent adaptation of the coconut plant reduces its photosynthesis. Water is an essential ingredient of photosynthesis. When it lacks, the tree shows adaptations to minimise photosynthesis. However, this also directly affects the fruit. Fruit is a result of the food production of the tree. So, the quality and quantity of fruits decrease when insufficient food is produced. If a plant needs to drop fruits to protect itself, mature fruit is the first to be dropped. Plants try to keep the younger fruit as much as possible. This decreases the upcoming crops.

However, Mr Upali says coconuts are more affected and vulnerable to climate change than other seasonal plants, such as rambutan and cashew. He explained that a coconut is a tree that grows a flower and branches once a month. Accordingly, 12 to 13 flowers occur on a coconut tree annually. So, there is a higher possibility that those flowers will be impacted by drought. And they do not need drought to grow. So, they are highly sensitive to temperature and can be damaged easily. But cashew and rambutan are seasonal, and their flowers need drought seasons to grow well.

Mr. Upali said that coconut shows cross-pollination. So, their pollination mostly happens through the wind. But when there is a high atmospheric temperature, pollen can die when transported through the wind due to high temperature. This also impacts the coconut crop.

El Niño Effect on Coconut Cultivation

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans. It can have a widespread effect on weather patterns worldwide, including increased rainfall in some areas and drought conditions in others.

El Niño can have a varied impact on Sri Lanka’s climate. Typically, it brings drier than usual conditions in the country, leading to reduced rainfall and potentially droughts. This can affect agriculture, water resources and overall livelihoods. However, the exact impacts can vary depending on the strength and duration of the El Niño event and other regional climate factors.

The El Niño condition, currently in Sri Lanka, is predicted to develop further. This can affect many cultivations in Sri Lanka, including coconut cultivation. With the effect of El Niño, there will be extreme weather conditions. More prolonged and severe drought will lead to decreased coconut yield. As mentioned above, drought will lead to water scarcity and high temperatures in the country. All the negative impacts mentioned with those situations will follow the cultivation and challenge coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka with the El Niño phenomenon. 

Sri Lanka’s Plans to Challenge the El Niño in Coconut Cultivation

To protect the coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka, the Minister of Agriculture and Plantation Industry, Mr. Mahinda Amaraweera, instructed the officials of the Ministry of Agriculture and Plantation Industry to implement a joint program.

Mr Mahinda Amaraweera also instructed the Coconut Development Authority, Lunuwila Coconut Research Institute and the Coconut Development Board to work together and provide the farmers with the necessary technical knowledge to protect private-sector plantations.

For the project to protect our coconut cultivation from the El Niño phenomenon, the government has allocated Rs. 300 million from the 2024 budget. Also, they have arranged for 360,000 coconut saplings to be planted to develop and continue more successful coconut cultivation.

Mr Dharma Wanninayake, Director of Media, Ministry of Agriculture, quoted that, with the prediction and hypothesis of the international and national weather forecasting, the Ministry of Agriculture has planned to prepare and make tolerance for any situation. However, according to Mr Wanninayaka, there are many plans with the Ministry of Agriculture to protect coconut cultivation and other cultivations in the country. Generally, protecting water sources such as lakes has been their primary target. Managing limited water resources during a drought is very important, and technical knowledge and methods are being conducted all over the country under the consultation of the Ministry of Agriculture.

When it comes to coconut cultivation, the main plan is to protect the moisture content of the soil in the drought. The Ministry of Agriculture has proposed a method. Mr. Dharma Wanninayaka explained this method. According to him, generally, this is a method of digging pits. In the lands with coconut cultivation, the pits should be dug scattered. This pit should have an average depth of 6 feet. These pits should be packed with coconut husks to protect and store moisture well. After filling the pit with coconut husks, the pit should be covered with soil. This method helps preserve soil moisture even in a drought season. 

However, there should be at least 16 pits in a coconut cultivation land of one acre. The technical support, knowledge and guidance for this process will be provided to the farmers by the Ministry of Agriculture.

This program for protecting coconut cultivation is conducted all over Sri Lanka, even in wet, intermediate and dry zones.

Mr. Upali Rathnayake from Makandura Coconut Research Research Center said there are many suggestions for controlling soil moisture in the coconut cultivation lands. The main point is to balance the water table by preparing ponds and other water sources in the rainy season. The best irrigation system is the critical point to a good coconut yield.

He also mentioned the importance of using organic fertilisers instead of chemical fertilisers. At least 50% of organic fertiliser use will drive up the soil’s microbial activities, which is helpful because it increases the soil’s aeration, moisture, and quality.

He said the drought and high-temperature damage to coconut cultivation could not be stopped 100%. But it can be controlled to get a good and successful crop with these solutions.

Why is it important to protect coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka?

Protecting coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka is crucial because of many reasons.

Economic Importance: Coconut cultivation significantly contributes to Sri Lanka’s economy, providing employment opportunities and income for many people, especially in rural areas.

Food Security: Coconuts are a staple food and a source of nutrition for Sri Lankans. Protecting coconut cultivation ensures a stable food supply for the population.

Environmental Benefits: Coconut trees play a vital role in maintaining ecological balance. They prevent soil erosion, provide shade, and contribute to biodiversity by hosting various species of plants and animals.

Cultural Significance: Coconuts are deeply ingrained in Sri Lankan culture and traditions. They are used in religious ceremonies, culinary practices, and cultural rituals.

Export Potential: Sri Lanka exports coconut products such as coconut oil, desiccated coconut, and coconut-based handicrafts. Protecting coconut cultivation ensures the sustainability of these export industries.

Protecting coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka is essential for the country’s economy, food security, environment, culture, and international trade.

– With inputs from Mihiri Saparamadhu–