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A weather system that developed over the Bay of Bengal and crossed India’s eastern coast as a deep depression is gradually losing strength. However, its weakening has not brought an immediate end to the threat. The system has moved inland, carrying large amounts of moisture northwards and raising concerns over heavy rainfall, flooding, waterlogging and landslides across parts of India and Nepal.
The system crossed the north Andhra Pradesh coast near Kalingapatnam between late September 23 and the early hours of September 24. Before making landfall, it had strengthened into a deep depression, packing winds of 55–65 kilometres per hour and gusting up to 75 kmph.
There had been a possibility that the system could intensify further into a cyclone. However, it weakened instead. One factor that may have contributed to this was the strong El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific. Such conditions can create an atmospheric environment less favourable for cyclone formation in the North Indian Ocean.
Rainfall Threat Moves Inland
The weakening of the depression does not mean that the weather threat has disappeared. As the system moves north-northwestwards, its rainfall footprint is spreading farther inland.
The India Meteorological Department issued orange to red alerts for parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana and Chhattisgarh, with some locations expected to receive more than 204.5 millimetres of rainfall. Heavy rain was also forecast over parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
For several regions, the main concern is therefore not strong winds but intense rainfall over a short period. Areas that have already received substantial rain can be particularly vulnerable because saturated soil has less capacity to absorb additional water. Heavy spells can quickly overwhelm drainage systems, flood low-lying areas and cause rivers and streams to rise. The situation also highlights how a weather system can continue to have a significant impact even after losing its strength. Once a depression moves over land, it can continue transporting and releasing moisture along its path, producing heavy rainfall far away from the original landfall location.
Nepal Remains on Alert as System Weakens
The weather system’s influence has extended into Nepal, where authorities also warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall. Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology forecast significant rainfall in parts of Gandaki and Lumbini provinces between September 25 and 27, while areas of Koshi and Bagmati provinces could also experience heavy spells.
Thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds were possible alongside the rain. In Nepal’s mountainous and hilly regions, intense rainfall brings additional risks, including landslides and sudden increases in river levels.
The concern was particularly significant because several areas remain vulnerable following recent extreme weather events. Even when rainfall is short-lived, saturated slopes can become unstable, while swollen rivers can threaten settlements and infrastructure located close to waterways.
By September 27, however, the system had weakened further and rainfall activity was expected to gradually decline as the associated low-pressure area lost strength. Isolated heavy rainfall could still occur, but the overall weather situation was showing signs of improvement.
The episode is a reminder that the impact of a Bay of Bengal weather system cannot be measured simply by whether it becomes a cyclone. A system that never reaches cyclone intensity can still bring widespread and disruptive rainfall after moving inland.
For communities across eastern and northern India and Nepal, the immediate focus remains on managing the risks associated with heavy rain. Roads, railway networks, agricultural fields and urban drainage systems can all be affected when large amounts of water arrive within a short period.
As the depression gradually dissipates, the rainfall threat is expected to ease. But its journey from the Bay of Bengal to the interior of the subcontinent demonstrates how far-reaching the effects of a single weather system can be, and why timely warnings remain crucial even when a storm begins to weaken.
References:
https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2609198.pdf
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