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The Amazon rainforest, which has long been regarded as a vital climate change buffer due to its capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, released more carbon in 2023 than it took in. According to a recent study published by local researchers, the ecosystem was pushed beyond its typical equilibrium by intense heat and protracted drought. The Amazon has been removing billions of tons of carbon from the atmosphere for decades, making it one of the planet’s most significant climate regulators. The events of 2023 demonstrate how rapidly, in the event of severe climate conditions, that role can change.
When Heat and Drought Overwhelm a Living System
The research shows that the shift was closely tied to exceptional weather conditions during 2023. Large parts of the Amazon basin experienced record-breaking heat and one of the most intense droughts in recent years. Ocean temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific were unusually warm, disrupting rainfall patterns across northern South America. As rains failed and temperatures climbed, soil moisture dropped, and trees faced prolonged water stress.
Under typical circumstances, as trees develop and store carbon in their roots and wood, the forest absorbs carbon through photosynthesis. That process slowed considerably during the drought. Trees grew and absorbed less carbon when there was less water available. Meanwhile, carbon continued to return to the atmosphere as a result of plant respiration and decomposition. As a result, there was a net annual release of carbon, which was an uncommon and concerning reversal in the forest’s function.
A Carbon Sink Turns Into a Source
Scientists relied on a combination of ground observations and atmospheric measurements to reach their findings. Data from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory near Manaus provided continuous monitoring of greenhouse gases in the region. These measurements were paired with satellite data and ecosystem models to track how carbon moved between the forest and the atmosphere throughout 2023.
The study estimates that the Amazon released 10 to 170 million tonnes of carbon more than it absorbed during the year. The most significant shift occurred in the latter half of 2023, when heat and dryness peaked. Interestingly, the change was not primarily driven by fires. Fire activity remained close to average levels compared with previous extreme years. Instead, it was the widespread weakening of plant growth that tipped the balance, revealing how sensitive the forest is to climatic stress even without large-scale burning.
What This Means for the Climate
For decades, the Amazon has acted as a vital buffer against global warming. Absorbing carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and land use change, it has helped slow the rate at which greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere. When that buffer weakens or temporarily fails, more carbon remains in the air, contributing to rising temperatures.
Researchers caution that one year as a carbon source does not automatically mean the Amazon has permanently lost its ability to absorb carbon. However, climate models suggest that extreme heat events and severe droughts are likely to become more frequent as global temperatures continue to rise. If such conditions occur more often, the forest may struggle to recover fully between events. The findings add to growing scientific concern that parts of the Amazon could approach a tipping point where long-term damage reduces its capacity to function as a stable carbon sink.
References:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025AV001658
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-amazon-rainforest-flipped-carbon-source.html
Banner image: Photo by Leon Beckert on Unsplash
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