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Nigeria could face the world’s highest projected number of additional heat-related deaths as a powerful El Niño develops, raising concerns across one of Africa’s most heat-exposed regions.
Researchers estimate that a strong El Niño could be linked to around 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. The Sahel, the semi-arid belt stretching across Africa just south of the Sahara, is expected to be among the hardest-hit regions. Nigeria alone could account for about 31,400 additional deaths, according to the projections. Sudan, Niger and Chad are also expected to see substantial increases, with the four countries together potentially recording around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths during the period.
The estimates come from researchers associated with the University of Chicago and the Climate Impact Lab. Their analysis combines seasonal temperature forecasts with data examining how heat affects mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide. The concern is not simply that temperatures will rise. It is that many people in the affected countries have limited means to escape the heat.
Heat meets poverty and weak cooling access
Across the Sahel, extreme heat is already a familiar threat. But when unusually high temperatures coincide with limited access to electricity, healthcare and cooling, the consequences can become far more severe. Nigeria illustrates the challenge. More than 60 per cent of its population was estimated to be living below the national poverty line in 2025. At the same time, unreliable electricity supplies make it difficult for many households to depend on fans or other cooling equipment during prolonged hot spells. The situation is even more difficult in Niger and Chad. Electricity access was estimated at only around 21 per cent in Niger and 13 per cent in Chad in 2024.
That means the ability to survive extreme heat can depend on something as basic as whether a household has reliable electricity. Outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable. Farmers, construction workers and others whose livelihoods depend on working outside may have little flexibility to avoid the hottest hours. Older people, children and people with existing health vulnerabilities can also be at greater risk. The projected death toll therefore reflects more than weather conditions. It also exposes the gap between rising climate risks and the resources available to communities to cope with them.
Warnings could make a difference
The projections do not mean that the estimated deaths are inevitable. Researchers point to early preparation and relatively simple heat-protection measures that could help reduce the toll.
Early-warning systems are among the most important tools. Authorities can alert communities ahead of dangerous heat and advise people to reduce outdoor activity, drink sufficient water and check on elderly or otherwise vulnerable neighbours. Cooling centres could offer another layer of protection, particularly in communities where homes lack reliable electricity or air conditioning. Schools, community halls and other public buildings could potentially serve as temporary safe spaces during the most dangerous periods.
Health systems will also need to prepare for sudden increases in heat-related illnesses. Heat exhaustion and heatstroke can place additional pressure on hospitals and clinics during extreme events. Preparing medical staff, supplies, and emergency capacity in advance can help health services respond more effectively. Workplace measures could also save lives. Changing working hours, introducing additional rest breaks, and ensuring access to drinking water can reduce heat exposure for outdoor workers.
The larger challenge, however, is structural. Wealthier countries have greater resources to invest in cooling, resilient infrastructure and healthcare. Many countries in the Sahel have to confront increasing heat while simultaneously dealing with poverty, unreliable electricity and limited public-health capacity. The emerging El Niño threat therefore offers a stark reminder that climate impacts are not distributed evenly. The same rise in temperature can have dramatically different consequences depending on where people live and what resources they have.
For Nigeria and its neighbours, the months ahead will be about more than monitoring temperatures. The crucial question will be whether forecasts can be converted into timely warnings and practical protection before extreme heat arrives. In a warming world, predicting dangerous heat is increasingly possible. The harder task is making sure people have the means to survive it.
References:
This year’s El Nino-driven heat could cause nearly half a million more deaths, group says
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