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A global push to make electricity a bigger part of how the world heats homes, powers factories and moves people could help cut fossil fuel use, but the transition will not cost every country the same. A proposed COP31 target aims to increase electricity’s share of final energy demand from about 23% today to 35% by 2035. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the goal is economically within reach overall. Still, developing countries face major hurdles, including weak power grids, financially strained utilities and much higher borrowing costs.
COP31 sets sights on faster electrification
The Turkish presidency of COP31, which will be held in Antalya from November 9 to 20, 2026, has made global electrification one of its three headline priorities. The proposed “35-by-35” pledge would require electricity’s share of global final energy use to rise from around 23% to 35% within nine years. That would mean increasing the share by about 1.2 percentage points every year, roughly four times the pace recorded since 2010.
The IEA, in a report prepared for the COP31 presidency, found that the target is economically achievable as the costs of many electric technologies continue to fall. At 2026 prices, the agency estimates that increasing electricity’s share to about 33% of global energy use would already be cost-effective. Electrification could also help cut emissions from energy use, with the IEA estimating that end-use emissions could fall by 40% by 2035 if the 35% target is achieved.
The biggest gains will differ across countries
Electrification is already strongest in buildings, where electricity supplies nearly 40% of energy needs. Industry follows at just under 30%, while transport remains far behind at around 2%. The IEA estimates that under a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, electricity would need to account for 55% of energy use in buildings, 39% in industry and 13% in transport by 2035.
But the same technologies will not necessarily be the priority everywhere. Advanced economies and China account for much of the world’s space-heating demand and three out of four cars on the road, making heat pumps and electric cars important areas for electrification. Developing countries could see larger opportunities in electric two- and three-wheelers, clean cooking, irrigation and low-temperature industrial processes. Around 730 million people still lack access to electricity, meaning electrification is also closely linked to basic energy access and economic development.
Grids, finance and utilities could hold back the transition
The scale of infrastructure required is substantial. The IEA estimates that reaching the 35% target would add about 1,400 terawatt-hours of electricity demand each year and require grids to expand 40% faster than they have in the past. More than 2,500 gigawatts of renewable energy, storage and large-load projects are already waiting for grid connections worldwide. Equipment shortages are another concern, with transformer costs in the US rising by about 80% over the past five years.
The financial challenge is particularly severe in developing economies. About three-quarters of utilities in sub-Saharan Africa and nearly half in developing Asia are estimated to be in poor financial health. Meanwhile, the annual investment required for end-use electrification is expected to rise from roughly $320 billion to $1 trillion by 2035. The cost of capital for clean-energy projects can also be two to three times higher in emerging economies than in advanced economies and China.
For countries across Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia, which are expected to see some of the fastest growth in electricity demand, the analysis argues that a global target will need to come with predictable financial and infrastructure support. Without affordable capital for grid upgrades and targeted support for areas such as clean cooking, electric mobility and small-scale industries, a target that appears affordable globally could remain difficult to achieve in the countries that need electrification most.
References:
https://unfccc.int/cop31/the-road-to-antalya
https://cop31.tr/assets/docs/news/35-by-35-electrification-pledge-2026-en.pdf
https://www.iea.org/reports/electrification
Banner image: Photo by Yuan Yang on Unsplash
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