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A dry spell first, then the deluge: that is the sequence Sri Lanka is now preparing for, with the strengthening El Niño expected to peak around November, months earlier than previously anticipated. Minister of Environment Dr. Dammika Patabendi outlined the outlook at a special media briefing held at the Department of Government Information on July 23, where he was joined by senior officials from the meteorology, irrigation, disaster management, agriculture and wildlife sectors.
According to the minister, current forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to reach its peak around November. As a result, Sri Lanka may experience prolonged dry conditions through July, August and September, followed by above-average rainfall from October to December, local media reported.
He noted that El Niño is a global climate phenomenon affecting many countries and said the Sri Lankan government is strengthening its preparedness to minimise its impacts. Warning that the country could face severe drought if the situation intensifies, Dr. Patabendi urged the public to conserve both water and electricity. He also cautioned that El Niño-related weather extremes could affect livelihoods, economic activity and public health.
El Niño Could Become a Very Strong Event
Director General of the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijemannage, who also addressed the briefing, said the current El Niño, which had remained weak in earlier months, is now strengthening towards a moderate phase, and warned that it could eventually develop into a very strong event, according to reports of the briefing.
Global monitoring agencies broadly support this assessment. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared El Niño conditions in June 2026 and, in its July update, said the event will continue to strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97 percent chance of persisting into early 2027. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology’s own seasonal outlook, citing NOAA figures, puts the probability of a very strong El Niño (sea surface temperature anomalies of 2.0 degrees Celsius or more in the key Niño 3.4 region) during November 2026 to January 2027 at 63 percent, with a roughly one-in-three chance the event remains weaker than that. An 81 percent figure cited in earlier government discussions refers to the World Meteorological Organization’s estimated probability of El Niño conditions developing globally, not the likelihood of an extremely strong event. The latest model surveys nonetheless show exceptional agreement that the event will peak at high intensity late this year.
Wijemannage explained that while some areas, including the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and the Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and Matara districts, may receive increased rainfall in the coming days, these areas are also expected to experience higher temperatures. In contrast, many other parts of the country are likely to receive below-average rainfall while experiencing unusually high temperatures.
The Department of Meteorology expects rainfall activity to gradually increase towards the end of September, with more widespread rainfall anticipated from October onwards. The increased rainfall, however, may also elevate the risk of flooding during the final months of the year.
Looking further ahead, Wijemannage warned that Sri Lanka could experience very dry conditions between January and April 2027, accompanied by high temperatures. He advised vulnerable groups, including young children, older adults and people who work outdoors, to take extra precautions during this period. Rainfall is expected to increase again from May 2027, although he stressed that seasonal forecasts could change as the evolution of El Niño remains uncertain.
Reservoir Levels Expected to Decline
Director General of the Irrigation Department Kithsiri Weligepolage said reduced rainfall and increased evaporation during August and September are expected to limit inflows to the country’s major reservoirs. He estimated that the storage of large reservoirs could fall below 35 percent of full capacity during this period. The department is closely monitoring the situation and will implement measures to manage available water resources.
Weligepolage added that the Irrigation Department will work closely with farmers to adjust cultivation schedules in response to the changing conditions. Although paddy cultivation for the Maha season traditionally begins around October, farmers will be encouraged to begin earlier so that seedlings are better established before the expected heavy rains later in the season. Similar guidance will be extended to farmers cultivating other crops.
Water Supply Remains Stable for Now
Director of the Water Management Centre Nilantha Danapala said the country’s reservoirs currently hold approximately 57 percent of their total storage capacity. While acknowledging the possibility of drought in the coming months, he expressed confidence that existing storage would help the country manage the anticipated dry period.
Measures to Protect Wildlife
Director General of the Department of Wildlife Conservation Ranjan Marasinghe outlined preparations to protect wildlife during a potential drought. Drawing on experience from previous dry spells, artificial water canals and watering points have already been established in national parks, and the department has the capacity to transport millions of litres of water daily if required. Yala National Park alone requires approximately 500,000 litres of water per day during severe dry periods, he noted. Authorities have also strengthened measures against wildlife poaching and forest fires, both of which typically increase during prolonged droughts.
Agriculture Sector Adjusting Cultivation Plans
Representing the Department of Agriculture, Dr. Thushara Wickramarathna said paddy farmers cultivating during the upcoming Maha season will be advised to complete initial land preparation and planting before October 15. The adjustment is expected to reduce crop damage from the heavy rainfall forecast from October onwards. Farmers cultivating other crops will also receive advisory services on modifying planting schedules, selecting more suitable varieties and improving irrigation practices to reduce climate-related risks.
Disaster Management Centre Urges Public to Rely on Official Information
Pradeep Kodippili, Media Spokesperson for the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), said the agency is fully prepared to respond to potential disasters associated with El Niño, including droughts, floods and other extreme weather events. He cautioned the public against misinformation circulating on social media about climate change and the anticipated El Niño conditions, urging people to obtain updates only from official government agencies and reliable sources. There is no need for panic, he said, but preparedness and public cooperation will be essential in the months ahead.
References
https://adaderana.lk/news/cmrwzrwkw000g356pzighp6rf
El Niño intensifies: Sri Lanka warned of severe weather ahead
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
https://meteo.gov.lk/pdfs/currentCondition_pdf.pdf
Cabinet subcommittee reviews measures to address El Niño
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