Turbulence Rising: Severe Air Jolts Have Increased by 55% Since 1979

Air travel has long been regarded as one of the safest and most efficient modes of transportation. Yet, frequent flyers may have noticed a worrying trend: turbulence seems to be getting worse. Recent research from the University of Reading in the United Kingdom warns that the warming climate is reshaping the atmosphere at altitudes where commercial aircraft typically fly, making conditions less stable and more prone to clear-air turbulence. These invisible, sudden jolts are set to become more frequent and more intense in the coming decades, raising serious safety and economic concerns for the aviation industry.

What the Study Reveals

The latest study, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, analyzed how climate change is altering two critical factors in the upper atmosphere: wind shear and atmospheric stability. Using 26 state-of-the-art climate models, researchers projected changes from 2015 to 2100 under different emission scenarios.

• Wind shear—differences in wind speed and direction at different altitudes—is expected to rise by 16 to 27 percent.
  
• Atmospheric stability, which helps to suppress turbulence, may decline by 10 to 20 percent.
  

Together, these shifts create conditions highly favorable for clear-air turbulence. Unlike turbulence caused by storms or mountains, clear-air turbulence is invisible to the naked eye and undetectable by standard aircraft radar, making it particularly dangerous.

The Science Behind Clear-Air Turbulence

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is caused by abrupt changes in wind speed and direction, especially along the boundaries of powerful jet streams. Due to a changing climate, extreme weather events will happen more frequently, which will increase the frequency of weather-related turbulence. The result is stronger wind shear and greater instability at cruising altitudes of around 35,000 feet, where most commercial flights operate. 

Lead researcher Joana Medeiros explained that this combination of stronger wind shear and weaker stability will work together to create more hazardous conditions. Passengers may experience sudden and severe jolts mid-flight, often without any warning.

Evidence of a Growing Problem

The new findings build on earlier research by the University of Reading, which showed that severe turbulence had already increased by 55 percent between 1979 and 2020. In that period, the number of severe turbulence hours per year rose from 17.7 to 27.4 over the North Atlantic, one of the world’s busiest flight corridors. Similar increases were noted across other regions, including the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic.

This upward trend suggests that the skies are already becoming rougher—and the situation is likely to worsen as the planet continues to warm.

Implications for Airlines and Passengers

The growing turbulence threat carries multiple consequences:

1. Passenger Safety
   Recent incidents have highlighted the dangers of turbulence, with passengers injured and, in some cases, fatalities reported. Sudden jolts can throw unbuckled passengers or crew members against cabin surfaces, causing serious harm.
   
2. Operational Disruptions
   Airlines may need to keep seatbelt signs on for longer durations and suspend cabin service more frequently. This could reduce passenger comfort and impact in-flight service quality.
   
3. Economic Costs
   Turbulence already costs U.S. airlines an estimated $150 to 500 million annually in injuries, medical claims, aircraft inspections, and delays. With turbulence projected to rise, these costs could escalate significantly.
   
4. Environmental Concerns
   Rerouting flights to avoid turbulence often leads to longer routes, more fuel consumption, and higher carbon emissions—further feeding into the very problem causing turbulence in the first place.

Preparing for a Rougher Ride

Experts suggest that adapting to this new reality will require a multi-pronged approach:

• Improved Technology: Airlines will need advanced detection systems that can identify turbulence before it strikes. Current radar systems are inadequate for detecting clear-air turbulence, but emerging satellite and sensor technologies could help.
  
• Operational Changes: Pilots may need to rely more heavily on turbulence forecasts and adopt stricter seatbelt protocols. Cabin crew may also require additional training to handle sudden turbulence events.
  
• Regulatory Support: Aviation regulators could play a crucial role by setting global safety standards for turbulence preparedness, encouraging airlines to adopt the latest detection technologies.
  
• Climate Action: Ultimately, reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the most effective long-term solution. Without addressing the root cause—global warming—the skies will only grow more turbulent.
  

A Shared Challenge Across the Globe

The study found that both the northern and southern hemispheres will be affected, meaning turbulence will become a global aviation challenge. High-emission scenarios showed the most alarming projections, but even moderate scenarios indicated significant increases in turbulence risk. This underscores the need for international cooperation, both in aviation safety and in climate action.

Turbulence has always been an accepted part of flying, but climate change is turning what was once an occasional inconvenience into a growing hazard. With wind shear projected to increase by up to 27 percent and atmospheric stability expected to fall by as much as 20 percent by the end of the century, passengers and airlines alike must prepare for bumpier skies ahead.

For travelers, the advice is simple but more important than ever: always keep your seatbelt fastened when seated. For the aviation industry, the challenge is more complex, demanding innovation, investment, and global coordination. As the world warms, ensuring safer and smoother flights will require not only adapting to turbulence but also tackling the climate crisis that fuels it.

References:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814

https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2025/Research-News/Turbulent-flights-to-continue-as-warming-world-shakes-skies

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/aop/JAS-D-24-0283.1/JAS-D-24-0283.1.xml

https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2023/Research-News/Aviation-turbulence-strengthened-as-the-world-warmed

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