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Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with scientists warning that the planet is moving deeper into dangerous climate territory. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), produced with the UK Met Office, says there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will become hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded. The report also warns of a 91% probability that at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold scientists have long associated with escalating climate risks.
WMO warns the world is entering a period of prolonged extreme heat
According to the report, annual global average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, keeping the planet near record levels of warming. Researchers also estimate a 75% chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C, signalling how close the world is moving toward breaching the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious temperature goal.
While a temporary breach of 1.5°C for a single year does not mean the Paris Agreement target has officially failed, scientists say repeated crossings of the threshold are a warning sign that long-term warming is approaching the limit much faster than previously expected. The world already crossed the mark temporarily in 2024, when global temperatures reached around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report also notes that the likelihood of temperatures crossing 2°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years remains exceptionally low, at less than one per cent. But researchers stress that every additional fraction of warming increases the risk of more severe heatwaves, floods, droughts, glacier loss and rising sea levels.
Arctic warming is expected to far outpace the global average
One of the most striking findings in the report concerns the Arctic, which continues to warm significantly faster than the rest of the planet. Scientists project that Arctic winters during the next five years could be around 2.8°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, roughly 3.5 times faster than the global average warming rate.
Researchers warn that this accelerated warming is likely to further reduce Arctic sea ice, particularly in regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. The loss of reflective ice surfaces allows darker ocean waters to absorb more heat, reinforcing warming through a feedback loop that scientists say is already reshaping polar climate systems.
The report also projects major regional shifts in rainfall patterns. Wetter than average conditions are expected across northern Europe, Alaska and parts of northern Asia, while drier conditions may develop in parts of the Amazon region. Scientists say these changing precipitation patterns could affect agriculture, water resources and disaster risks across multiple continents.
El Niño could push temperatures even higher
The WMO report points to a growing tendency toward El Niño conditions, particularly during 2027 and 2028, which could further boost global temperatures. El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is often linked to hotter global conditions.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report and a scientist at the UK Met Office, said an El Niño event expected toward the end of 2026 could increase the chances of 2027 becoming another record-breaking year globally. The previous strong El Niño contributed significantly to the exceptional global heat observed in 2023 and 2024.
Climate scientists say the latest projections reinforce a broader reality: greenhouse gas emissions continue to push global temperatures upward despite repeated international warnings. The report comes after a series of record-breaking years marked by extreme heatwaves, marine heat events, flooding and drought across multiple regions.
For researchers, the message is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Temporary crossings of climate thresholds are no longer distant projections but recurring events, raising concerns that the world is rapidly running out of time to limit the most damaging impacts of global warming.
References:
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/new-report-suggests-more-global-temperature-records-ahead
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167596
Banner image: Photo by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash
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