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Scientists have reported that last month marked the warmest February ever recorded globally, extending a streak of record temperatures for the ninth consecutive month. Data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reveals that global sea surface temperatures have also reached unprecedented levels.
February 2024 stood out as approximately 1.77°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, as defined by the average from 1850 to 1900, breaking the 2016 record by about 0.12°C. This period of elevated temperatures has significantly affected regions across western Australia, southeast Asia, southern Africa, and South America, pushing the global average temperature for the past 12 months to 1.56°C above pre-industrial levels.
This surge in temperatures temporarily places the world above the critical 1.5°C threshold, beyond which the most severe effects of climate change are anticipated. During the first half of February, daily global average temperatures soared, peaking at 2°C above 1850-1900 levels on several days.
Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated that February has become part of the ongoing series of record temperatures observed in the past few months. He noted that, although this may seem remarkable, it is not surprising because the consistent warming of the climate system naturally results in new temperature extremes. He added that the climate reacts to the actual levels of greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere; therefore, unless there is a concerted effort to stabilize these gases, it is inevitable that new global temperature records will be set, leading to their associated consequences.
Not only have air temperatures risen, but global sea surface temperatures have also reached record highs, with February outside the polar regions marking the highest for any month on record at 21.06°C, indicating a persistent and unusual warmth across the oceans, not solely attributable to El Niño. This warming has profound implications, from coral reef bleaching to rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes. Concurrently, Antarctic sea ice has hit record low extents, further evidence of the climate’s rapid changes.
Indications suggest the streak of setting new global temperature records might soon pause. The World Meteorological Organization revealed that the El Niño phenomenon of 2023-24 ranks among the top five strongest recorded, though it’s showing signs of weakening. Despite this, El Niño’s influence is expected to sustain higher temperatures into the early months of 2024.
Dr Colin Morice from the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre predicts that the effects of El Niño will maintain elevated temperatures through the first half of the year. Nevertheless, forecasts from the US NOAA anticipate a transition to neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean by mid-year, followed possibly by a shift to the cooler La Niña phase in the latter half, which could temporarily reduce global air temperatures due to cooler waters in the East Pacific limiting heat release into the atmosphere. However, without a significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, temperatures are set to rise over the long term, resulting in further record-breaking temperatures and more severe weather events.
Climate Fact Checks has done detailed explainers on the phenomena which you can read here: El Niño and La Niña.
References
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68428348
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