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The world is on course to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set under the Paris Agreement, but limiting the temperature overshoot and bringing global warming back below that threshold by the end of the century remains possible, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return outlines the emissions cuts needed to achieve this outcome. It finds that global greenhouse gas emissions must decline sharply over the next 15 years, far beyond the reductions expected under current national climate pledges. The report also highlights progress in renewable energy and climate policies, arguing that existing solutions can be scaled up to narrow the gap between countries’ commitments and the action required to limit climate change.
Emissions cuts needed far exceed current climate pledges
Under the report’s lowest-possible overshoot scenario, global temperatures would peak at around 1.7°C to 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around the middle of the century before returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100. The pathway would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Achieving it would also require sustained removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Current national climate pledges fall well short of these targets. Full implementation of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. Under existing policies, global temperatures could rise by around 2.8°C this century. Even if countries fully implement their climate pledges, warming is projected to reach 2.6°C by 2100. The report says these projections are worse than those published last year, partly because of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.
Carbon removal brings additional challenges
Returning temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of the century would require more than rapid emissions cuts. Under the lowest-possible overshoot scenario, the world would also need to remove and permanently store about 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the century. That is equivalent to roughly eight years of global CO2 emissions at 2024 levels.
However, relying on carbon removal at this scale presents considerable technological and socioeconomic challenges. The report warns that the longer emissions remain high, the greater the peak warming will become, making the return to 1.5°C increasingly difficult. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels adds around 0.1°C to peak warming. The report therefore stresses that carbon removal cannot replace immediate emissions reductions. Cutting fossil fuel use, reducing methane emissions, protecting forests and expanding clean energy remain essential to limiting the extent and duration of temperature overshoot.
Renewable energy offers a path to faster climate action
Despite the widening gap between current pledges and the required reductions, UNEP identifies progress that could help accelerate the transition. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has expanded while growth in total energy supply from coal and oil has been slower than previously projected, and climate policies have helped reduce emissions in several countries and sectors.
The report draws on more than 220 policy evaluations to show that effective measures can deliver measurable reductions. Evaluated electricity-sector policies reduced emissions by an average of 9%, while economic instruments such as carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes achieved reductions of 5% to 13% across the sectors examined. However, these successes remain concentrated in particular countries, sectors and periods. UNEP says governments must expand and sustain effective policies, including commitments to triple renewable energy capacity, double the rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030, transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation. Strengthening these measures could help countries achieve deeper emissions cuts while reducing the economic and social risks of climate change.
References:
https://wedocs.unep.org/items/87c02cac-8da8-4c28-ba61-c846ee68ea70
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168634
Banner image: Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
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