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India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) updated long-range forecast released on Thursday. The forecast projects seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of plus or minus four percent, indicating an increased likelihood of rainfall deficiency across large parts of the country during the crucial June to September monsoon period.
The southwest monsoon delivers nearly three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall and plays a vital role in agriculture, water security, hydropower generation and rural livelihoods. The latest forecast suggests that the country may face a challenging monsoon season, particularly in key rain-fed agricultural regions.
According to IMD, there is an 84 percent probability that seasonal rainfall will be either below normal or deficient at the national level. Of this, the probability of deficient rainfall, defined as less than 90 percent of the LPA, stands at 60 percent, while the probability of below-normal rainfall ranges at 24 percent. The long-period average seasonal rainfall for the country is 87 centimetres based on the 1971-2020 period.
Uneven rainfall distribution
The updated forecast indicates that rainfall distribution is likely to vary significantly across different regions of India.
Northeast India is expected to receive normal seasonal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 percent of the LPA. In contrast, Northwest India, Central India and the South Peninsula are all projected to experience below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. The forecast also suggests below-normal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), a region encompassing much of India’s rain-fed agricultural land.
Probability forecasts released by IMD show a 46 percent chance of below-normal rainfall in Northwest India, 43 percent in Central India, and 45 percent in the South Peninsula. For the Monsoon Core Zone, the probability of below-normal rainfall stands at 43 percent. Northeast India remains comparatively balanced, with probabilities spread across below-normal, normal and above-normal categories.
Spatial forecasts indicate that most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal seasonal rainfall. However, some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central regions and isolated pockets of eastern India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
June likely to begin on a dry note
The first month of the monsoon season is also expected to witness a rainfall deficit. IMD forecasts that rainfall across the country during June 2026 will likely remain below 92 percent of the monthly long-period average.
Below-normal rainfall is considered very likely over most parts of India during June. Exceptions include parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, large areas of the southern peninsula and isolated pockets of Central India, where rainfall may range from normal to above normal.
A weak start to the monsoon can have significant implications for sowing operations, especially for farmers dependent on timely rainfall for crops such as paddy, pulses and oilseeds.
El Niño expected to emerge during monsoon season
One of the key climatic factors highlighted in the forecast is the evolving state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD said neutral ENSO conditions are currently transitioning towards El Niño conditions. Climate model forecasts, including those from IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System, indicate that El Niño is likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
Historically, El Niño events have often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India, although the strength of this relationship can vary from year to year.
Meanwhile, conditions in the Indian Ocean remain neutral. IMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another important climate driver affecting monsoon rainfall, is currently neutral and is expected to remain neutral throughout the monsoon season.
Hotter June expected across much of India
Alongside rainfall concerns, the weather agency has forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during June.
Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over much of India, except for some areas of Central, Northwest and East India where temperatures may remain normal or below normal. Minimum temperatures are also expected to stay above normal across most regions, with only limited areas in Northwest, Central and adjoining South Peninsular India likely to experience normal to below-normal night time temperatures.
The outlook also points to an increase in heatwave activity during June.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected across many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may also witness more heatwave days than usual. Rajasthan and Jharkhand are among the few states where below-normal heatwave days are likely.
Potential impacts on agriculture and water resources
IMD cautioned that below-normal rainfall could create challenges across several sectors. Reduced rainfall may affect agricultural productivity, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability. It could also increase the risk of drought conditions, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources.
The department recommended measures such as efficient water resource management, promotion of water conservation practices, contingency planning in agriculture, strengthened drought monitoring and greater use of early warning services to reduce potential impacts.
Regarding heatwave preparedness, IMD said state governments and district administrations should ensure the availability of safe drinking water, maintain cooling shelters and strengthen health surveillance and emergency response systems to protect vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly and outdoor workers.
The updated forecast represents the second stage of IMD’s long-range monsoon outlook for 2026. The department said it will issue its forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June, providing a clearer picture of how the monsoon may evolve during the peak season.
References:
https://archive.org/details/updated-lrf-sw-monsoon-29-05-2026
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