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India could see around 55,000 additional heat-related deaths between October 2026 and March 2027 as an exceptionally strong El Niño fuels unusually high temperatures, according to updated projections from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The revised estimate is nearly four times the 15,800 additional deaths projected for India in an earlier assessment covering September 2026 to February 2027. Globally, the latest projections put additional heat-related deaths at about 373,000 over the next six months, while the cumulative toll from the El Niño event could reach 857,000 by March 2027. Researchers warn that the conditions driving these risks could resemble the extreme heat expected to become more common as the climate warms.
India faces one of the world’s highest projected heat death tolls
The updated projections place India second only to Nigeria, which could experience around 56,000 additional heat-related deaths between October and March. Indonesia and Brazil are also expected to face substantial increases, with approximately 29,000 and 19,000 additional deaths, respectively. Most of India’s projected deaths are expected in March, as temperatures begin to rise ahead of the summer season.
The global estimate has also increased sharply. The Climate Impact Lab now projects around 857,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026, when the event began, and March 2027. Its September assessment had estimated 451,000 deaths through February 2027. The latest revision reflects both the addition of March to the forecast period and the incorporation of observed temperatures for August and September, which were warmer than previously predicted. August 2026 was the warmest August on record, while September was the second warmest, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Why El Niño is raising concerns over extreme heat
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation and influences rainfall and temperatures across different parts of the world. Some regions experience drought, while others face heavy rainfall and flooding. During a strong El Niño, global temperatures can rise further as the ocean releases heat into the atmosphere.
The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that the current event could become one of the strongest since records began in 1950. It is expected to intensify towards a peak around December 2026, with effects likely to persist into early 2027. However, the projected death toll should not be interpreted as the number of deaths that El Niño alone will cause. The Climate Impact Lab estimates additional mortality associated with extreme temperatures by comparing expected deaths with a historical baseline and accounting for differences in local climate, vulnerability and capacity to adapt. The estimates are model-based projections rather than confirmed death counts.
Extreme heat risks could become more common as the planet warms
The researchers warn that the temperatures associated with the current El Niño offer a glimpse of the risks countries could face in a warmer future. Conditions expected during the event resemble those that climate projections suggest could become more common over the next two decades. This raises concerns about how communities will cope if extreme heat becomes more frequent while access to cooling, healthcare and other protective measures remains unequal.
The Climate Impact Lab has launched an El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker to help governments, humanitarian organisations and policymakers identify areas facing the greatest risks. It provides estimates at state and provincial levels and is intended to help authorities direct resources towards vulnerable populations. The researchers point to measures such as early-warning systems, expanded healthcare access, cooling centres, hydration stations and better protections for outdoor workers as ways to reduce heat-related deaths. The projections are expected to be updated as new temperature observations and forecasts become available.
Although emergency measures could save lives during the current event, researchers stress that longer-term preparation will be essential as temperatures rise. Heat action plans, improved forecasting and wider access to cooling can help communities respond to dangerous conditions. At the same time, reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains critical to limiting long-term global warming. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but its effects are unfolding against a background of human-driven climate change that is raising global temperatures and increasing the risks associated with extreme heat.
References:
New Tracker Maps the Human Toll of El Niño’s Heat
Banner image: Photo by Srinivasan Venkataraman on Unsplash
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