Fact Check: Does a Decline in Global Hurricane Energy Disprove the Climate Change Link?

A recent tweet by Dr. Matthew Wielicki claims that a decline in global hurricane energy since 1990 disproves the connection between climate change and stronger hurricanes. The argument hinges on a graph showing a downward trend in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), suggesting that warmer oceans aren’t making storms worse. But this interpretation is misleading. While total hurricane energy can fluctuate due to natural climate patterns, the most dangerous aspects of hurricanes — intensity, rainfall, and destructive potential — are undeniably increasing as the oceans heat up. 

Claim Post:

Claim 1: This graph definitively debunks the claim that climate change strengthens hurricanes.

Fact: False. Science doesn’t work on “definitive” proof from a single graph. Decades of hurricane research rely on multiple lines of evidence, satellite data, ocean temperature records, and advanced climate models, all pointing to a trend of stronger storms in a warming world. The graph in question tracks ACE, which measures total seasonal storm energy; however, this metric can be influenced by temporary fluctuations in storm frequency. For example, the western Pacific (a major hurricane hotspot) has seen fewer cyclones in recent years due to natural climate shifts like El Niño. That doesn’t mean the hurricanes that do form are weaker. Studies show the opposite: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has grown, and storms are intensifying faster than before.  

ACE is just one piece of the puzzle. Ignoring the broader evidence, such as the fact that warmer oceans provide more fuel for hurricanes, is akin to claiming that colder winter days disprove the existence of global warming. Climate science examines long-term trends, rather than year-to-year fluctuations. The bottom line? A single metric doesn’t override the overwhelming consensus that climate change is making the most destructive hurricanes more likely.  

Claim 2: Despite rising ocean temperatures since 1990, overall hurricane energy has significantly declined.

Fact: Misleading. Global ACE has indeed seen a recent dip, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. Hurricanes don’t behave the same way everywhere, and some regions see fewer storms while others get hit harder. The western Pacific, which usually drives much of the world’s ACE, has had quieter seasons lately due to natural climate cycles. Meanwhile, the Atlantic has been anything but calm. Hurricanes like Maria (2017), Michael (2018), and Ian (2022) rapidly exploded in strength, thanks in part to abnormally warm ocean waters.  

The key point here is that total storm energy isn’t the only thing that matters. Even if there are slightly fewer storms overall, the ones that form are more likely to become monsters. Research indicates that since the 1980s, the likelihood of a hurricane reaching Category 3 or higher intensity has increased by approximately 8% per decade. That’s not a coincidence, it’s basic physics. Warmer water means more energy for storms to draw upon, leading to fiercer winds and heavier rainfall. So, while ACE might fluctuate, the real threat, the kind of hurricanes that devastate cities, is increasing.  

Claim 3: Warmer oceans are leading to weaker hurricanes, not stronger ones.

Fact: False. This claim contradicts both scientific evidence and recent historical events. Warmer oceans don’t just nudge hurricanes toward greater strength—they supercharge them. Here’s how: First, hotter water acts like rocket fuel for storms, allowing them to intensify at alarming speeds. Hurricane Harvey went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 monster in just 48 hours before slamming Texas in 2017. Second, the number of major hurricanes (Category 4 and 5) has been creeping upward for decades. A PNAS study found that the odds of any given hurricane becoming a major one have risen steadily since the 1980s.  

But perhaps the most dangerous effect of warming is the deluge of rain these storms now unleash. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, meaning hurricanes can dump unprecedented amounts of water. Harvey stalled over Houston and dropped 60 inches of rain in some areas, something that would have been far less likely in a cooler climate. The same goes for storms like Florence (2018) and Ida (2021), which brought catastrophic flooding hundreds of miles inland. If warmer oceans made hurricanes weaker, we wouldn’t be seeing records broken so often.  

The Physics of Warming Oceans and Hurricane Intensity

At the core of the climate-hurricane connection lies a fundamental thermodynamic principle: warmer oceans provide more energy for storm development. The potential intensity theory, established by Kerry Emanuel in 1986, demonstrates that maximum hurricane wind speeds increase by about 5% for every 1°C of sea surface warming. This explains why, despite natural fluctuations in storm frequency, we’re observing a greater proportion of high-category hurricanes. A Study found that the likelihood of a hurricane reaching Category 3 strength or higher has increased by 15% over the past 38 years, with this trend accelerating in the last decade. The warming isn’t just surface-deep; increased ocean heat content allows storms to maintain their intensity longer and recover more quickly from wind shear disruptions.  

The atmospheric changes accompanying global warming further amplify hurricane risks. A 7% increase in atmospheric moisture capacity per 1°C of warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) directly translates to heavier rainfall, as dramatically demonstrated by Hurricane Harvey’s 60-inch deluge. Meanwhile, weakening tropical circulation patterns are causing storms to move more slowly and stall more frequently near coastlines. These compounding factors — stronger winds, heavier rain, and prolonged exposure — create a new era of “compound extreme” hurricanes that defy historical precedents in their destructive potential.

References:
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000825

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117

https://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/nature.pdf

Major tropical cyclones have become ‘15% more likely’ over past 40 years

https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase

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Photo by Brian McGowan on Unsplash

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