Despite conservation efforts, Climate Change Poses Serious Threat to Polar Bear Population!

CLAIM: Contrary to popular beliefs, the global Polar Bear population has increased over time!

SOURCES: These claims are being shared by means of social narrations and some website articles and videos such as this also state the polar bear population has in fact increased by a few folds

The polar bear is a poster animal related to climate change and their population is often used as one of the famous yardsticks by climate enthusiasts while addressing about climate change and its impacts.

We did not find concrete evidence to support a rising trend of polar bear population, as the actual numbers of these giants remain elusive. Even though increased conservation efforts in the past few decades have had a say in the polar bear population, there is a lot of evidence suggesting that impacts of climate change have threatened the habitats and lifestyles of polar bears over the past few years.

Polar bears, the largest species of bears, are endemic to the North Pole. These majestic creatures are at the top of the food chain in the arctic circle. They mainly hunt the seal fish. Polar bears are good swimmers too. Their bodies are adapted to survive in extreme cold and snowy environments. Details about polar bears can be read from here. Archived.

We decided to address the claims related to polar bears, their numbers and climate change.

Generally, climate activists continuously emphasize the difficulties faced by polar bears, because of climate change. One famous video posted by National Geographic, seen below, states that temperature rises, sea ice melting has meant that polar bears had lost access to their staple diet, seals, hence were starving.

However, there are people who reject these claims and say polar bears are not being threatened by global climate change and they also say that their numbers are also increasing.

Let`s look at the polar bear population figures.

A Russian biologist named Savva Uspenski claimed that in 1950 s there were around 5000 bears in the Soviet occupied arctic region, and there were around 5000 to 10,000 bears in the arctic region in the 1960s. But many scientists including the global community of scientists have refuted these numbers.

Meanwhile, speaking to the AFP in 2021, Steven Armstrup, one of the experts of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) had said that there was not any substantial evidence about trends of increment of the numbers of polar bears. According to the IUCN red data book, the population trend of the polar bear was unknown. The related article of AFP can be read from here. Archived.

Before 1700`s indigenous people in the Arctic region used to hunt polar bears, yet these were not carried out in massive scales. Hence, it didn’t significantly affect the population of polar bears. However, from 1700 to around 1970`s large scale hunting of polar bears was reported, initiated mainly by North American and European hunters. As a result, the number of polar bears rapidly decreased. In 1973, USA, former USSR, along with few other European countries signed the International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and their Habitat.

Some of the studies indicate that polar bear populations have been stable over the past few decades; and even their numbers have increased from 23,000 in 1980 to around 26,000 from 1995 to 2015 and to 29,000 more recently (all +/-15%). Hence, one might argue that polar bear population has not had a major dip, despite the climate change concerns and a slightly warmer environment might even help them.

Yet, as discussed earlier, primary reasons for these numbers seem to be both greater restrictions on commercial and sport hunting and more thoughtful conservation and relocation efforts.

However, in 2005, polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was moved to the vulnerable group by IUCN from the previous least concern group after considering the risks related with their survival. The latest IUCN red list assessment in 2015 related to polar bears does not specify any population trend for this species, which continues to be listed as Vulnerable under criteria A3c.

According to IUCN specialist group`s report about polar bears in 2021, they identified 19 main polar bear populations throughout the northern hemisphere. Among them , 8 populations are data deficient, 4 populations are in decline, while 5 populations are stable, and 2 populations are in increase.

Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. It forms in both the Arctic and the Antarctic in each hemisphere’s winter and retreats in the summer but does not completely disappear. This floating ice has a significant influence on the polar environment, influencing ocean circulation, weather, and regional climate.

For the Arctic ecosystem, sea ice is as important as soil is to the forest. When ocean water gets cold enough to freeze it expels its salt, causing channels to form in the ice. Algae grow within these channels and form the base of the food chain. Algae feed the tiny organisms, like zooplankton, that inhabit these waters. Arctic cod feed on them. Seals eat Arctic cod. And polar bears prey on seals.

However, due to number of various reasons, as compared the Antarctic, the Arctic Sea Ice has been diminishing over last few years, as much as 13% per decade according to NASA

Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt, breed, roam, and sometimes to den. But the Arctic is warming, and ice is melting due to human-caused climate change. Already, longer ice-free seasons and longer fasting periods have led to a decline in some polar bear populations, while the populations in the northernmost Arctic regions may not have felt the impacts of diminishing sea ice yet.

Research shows that without action to greatly reduce carbon emissions and stabilize our climate, we could lose all but a few polar bear populations by the end of the century.

Due to global climate change related issues, scientists predict that only a little portion of habitat will remain for polar bears and other living beings who depend on the sea ice in Northeastern Canada and Northern Greenland. A group supported by WWF found out that much of the arctic region will face severe ice loss in coming decades. More details about this can be read from here & here Archived.

Scientists and conservationists have also warned that there were a growing number of incidents showing the threat of human food waste posing risks to polar bears as reported here as well.

Even though there are limited studies such as this, which had identified secret populations of polar bears in Greenland in a seemingly impossible habitat — one that, for most of the year, lacks the floating platforms of sea ice, scientist believe Sea ice will continue to decline across the Arctic, which will decrease the survival odds for most polar bears.

An assessment done by IUCN in 2015, predicted that by 2050, the polar bear population could decrease by around 30% due to climate change related phenomena. Details about this can be taken from here. Archived

According to our analysis, it`s clear that social narratives which say that climate change has not had an influence on the polar bears and their population continues to rapidly increase are misleading.

Without action to greatly reduce carbon emissions and stabilize our climate, the effects of temperature rise and resulting climate changes would significantly impact the polar bear habitats and their population in coming years.