Fact Check: Earth’s Angular Momentum Is Not Behind Half of Global Warming

The X post claims that half of global warming is due to Earth’s angular momentum changes, suggesting that climate sensitivity to CO₂ doubling is below 1° C, that global warming will never be a danger, and that Net Zero policies are highly inefficient. These statements misrepresent scientific findings: angular momentum changes explain natural variability, not long-term warming; climate sensitivity is well above 1°C according to major studies; global warming poses serious risks even at lower levels; and Net Zero remains a crucial strategy for stabilising the climate.

Claim post:

Claim 1: If half of the warming is due to the change in angular momentum, as is claimed, climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO₂ is below 1°C

Fact: False. The claim suggests that Earth’s angular momentum changes are responsible for half of global warming. While atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) does influence short-term climate variability, attributing half of the long-term global warming trend to AAM lacks scientific support. A study published in the Journal of Climate examined the relationship between AAM and surface temperature variability, noting that while AAM can affect atmospheric circulation patterns, it does not account for the persistent increase in global temperatures observed over the past century.

Furthermore, Climate sensitivity refers to the estimated increase in Earth’s average surface temperature resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report states that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely between 2°C and 4.5°C, with a best estimate of around 3°C. It is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. This range is supported by multiple lines of evidence, including paleoclimate data, observational studies, and climate models. A climate sensitivity below 1°C would not account for the observed warming trends and is inconsistent with the empirical data. Therefore, the claim that climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO₂ is less than 1°C is not supported by the scientific consensus.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has consistently identified greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO₂, as the primary driver of recent global warming. Natural variability factors, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), contribute to short-term fluctuations but do not explain the sustained warming trend. Therefore, the assertion that half of the warming is due to changes in angular momentum misrepresents the scientific understanding of climate change drivers.

Claim 2: Global warming will never be dangerous

Fact: Incorrect. The assertion that global warming will never be dangerous contradicts extensive scientific evidence indicating significant risks associated with rising global temperatures. The Lancet Countdown’s report highlights that climate change already impacts human health, with increased heat-related mortality, food insecurity, and the spread of infectious diseases.

Moreover, projections indicate that global warming could lead to severe and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events without substantial mitigation efforts. These changes pose significant threats to human societies, particularly vulnerable populations. Therefore, the claim that global warming will never be dangerous contradicts current scientific understanding.

Claim 3: Net Zero is highly inefficient at changing the climate.

Fact: Misleading. Net Zero refers to balancing the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere and those removed from it. The IPCC’s Report on Global Warming of 1.5°c emphasises that reaching Net Zero CO₂ emissions is essential to limit global warming to 1.5°c or 2°c, thereby reducing the risks and impacts of climate change.

While transitioning to Net Zero involves significant challenges, it is a critical strategy for mitigating climate change. Delaying action increases the difficulty and cost of achieving climate targets. Therefore, characterising Net Zero as highly inefficient misrepresents its role and importance in climate policy.

Natural Variability Does Not Equal Long-Term Climate Change

It’s essential to distinguish between natural climate variability and long-term climate change. Natural variability, such as El Niño and La Niña events, can cause short-term fluctuations in climate patterns. However, these variations do not account for the persistent, long-term trend of global warming observed over the past century. The IPCC notes that natural variability can influence global temperatures over short timescales (from one year to approximately two decades) but has a minimal impact on longer timescales.

In contrast, the long-term warming trend is primarily driven by human activities, notably the emission of greenhouse gases. Attributing the ongoing increase in global temperatures to natural variability ignores the substantial body of evidence linking anthropogenic factors to climate change. Therefore, while natural variability plays a role in short-term climate fluctuations, it does not negate the long-term trend of human-induced global warming.

The claims made in the X post misrepresent established climate science. Scientific consensus, supported by extensive research and data, attributes the primary cause of recent global warming to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding and addressing climate change requires accurate information and recognition of the critical role of human influence on the Earth’s climate system. 

References:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/19/JCLI-D-22-0322.1.xml

https://lancetcountdown.org/2023-report/#:~:text=A%20changing%20climate%20has%20profound,existing%20health%20challenges%20around%20the

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/#:~:text=In%20model%20pathways%20with%20no,Chapter%204%2C%204.3.7%7D

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions#:~:text=But%20the%20surface%20warming%20and,down%20the%20global%20average%20temperature.

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Vivek Saini
Vivek Saini
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