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Claim: Scientists have found in a recent study that there has been no change in global warming rates since 1970, which proves that global temperatures are not increasing.
Fact: Misleading. The study cited to make this claim doesn’t deny global warming or that the temperatures have been increasing.
What is the claim saying?
The screenshot of what seems to be an article published in The People’s Voice, a website known for spreading misinformation related to covid-19 and climate change, is going viral on social media with the claim that scientists have found in a recent study that there has been no change in global warming rates since 1970. The headline of the purported article seen in the viral screenshot reads as, ‘Scientists Find No Change In ‘Global Warming’ Rates Since 1970’.
The same claim was also posted on social media to deny global warming using an article published in The Daily Sceptic, another website that has published misinformation multiple times in the past.
What did we find?
We located the particular The People’s Voice article, seen in the viral screenshot with a keyword search.
We found that the article cites a recent study titled, ‘A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet’ published on October 14, 2024 in the Nature Communications Earth & Environment journal. We also found that The Daily Sceptic article has also used the same study to make a similar claim.
We found that the study in question analyzes global mean surface temperature data over the past 50 years to assess if the warming rate has changed. Using temperature data from NASA, NOAA, and two other agencies dating back to 1850, it finds no statistically significant shift in the warming rate since the 1970s, even with record temperatures in 2023. However, it is important to note that the researchers of the study also state, ‘Clearly, global warming has not paused…’
“It is very worrying to hear that our paper is used by climate deniers to make false claims. Our study affirms steadily increasing surface temperatures since the 1970s. Our results suggest that if a recent acceleration in global warming is occurring, the size of that acceleration is either too small or too recent to robustly detect it in globally averaged surface temperature records,” Claudie Beaulieu, associate professor in the Ocean Sciences Department at the University of California Santa Cruz and lead author of the study, told AFP.
Dr Kevin Collins, Senior Lecturer Environment and Systems, Open University, explained that the results of the study suggest that global warming is occurring at a steady state.
“With many people and places experiencing year on year record temperatures around the globe in the last decade, it is very human to assume global warming is accelerating or ‘surging’. However, through an authoritative statistical analysis of temperature increases since 1970, this research concludes that there is no detectable surge. Yet. Instead, the results suggest global warming is occurring at a steady state. However, as the authors acknowledge, this may be because the size of any acceleration is either statistically too small, or there is simply not enough data to detect a surge in the last decade. In other words, it is still too early to tell if the last decade (the warmest on record) represents a ‘leap’ in the warming trend. By 2035 or 2040 we may look back and be able to see from 2015 onwards there has been a fundamental shift in the warming trend,” Dr Collins said.
Dr Collins also expressed apprehension about the fact that the new research might be misinterpreted to show that there is no global warming or that a steady state increase in temperature means we have lots of time to act.
A report published by the University of California Santa Cruz has also clarified, ‘The new study, published on October 14 in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment, confirms the broad consensus that the planet is getting warmer, but at a statistically steady rate—not at a sufficiently accelerated rate that could be statistically defined as a surge.’
The majority of global warming has occurred since 1975, with the Earth’s average temperature rising rapidly at a rate of about 0.15–0.20°C per decade. This accelerated warming aligns closely with a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO₂, from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and industrial processes. The consistent warming trend has led to noticeable climate shifts, including more frequent heatwaves, rising sea levels, and disrupted weather patterns globally.
References:
https://science.feedback.org/outlet/the-peoples-voice
Scientists Find No Change In ‘Global Warming’ Rates Since 1970
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01711-1
https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.36KA4FJ
expert reaction to study on the rate of increase of global warming
https://news.ucsc.edu/2024/10/global-warming-statistics.html
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
