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Coffee lovers around the world may soon be paying more for their daily brew as a new global analysis shows rising heat linked to carbon pollution is pushing coffee-growing regions into dangerous temperature ranges. The study by climate research group Climate Central finds that from 2021 to 2025, major producing countries experienced a significant increase in what scientists call coffee-harming heat days, meaning days above 30°C (86°F) that stress coffee plants and can reduce yields and quality. This pattern is now affecting almost all of the world’s coffee supply and could have far-reaching implications for the drink’s availability and cost.
Heat Is Increasing Across Coffee Belt Regions
Climate Central analysed daily temperature records for 25 major coffee-producing countries that together account for nearly 97% of global coffee production. The researchers used a method called the Climate Shift Index to compare actual temperatures with the temperatures that would have occurred without human-driven carbon pollution. They counted additional days each year where temperatures were pushed above 30°C because of climate change.
The results show that all of the analysed countries are experiencing more coffee-harming heat each year compared with a world without fossil fuel emissions driving warming. On average, each country saw about 47 extra days per year of harmful heat between 2021 and 2025. This pattern was even stronger in the largest producing nations, where the frequency of excessive heat is already reshaping seasonal growing conditions.
Major Producers Hit Hard by Extra Heat
The five countries responsible for roughly 75% of the world’s coffee supply, Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, were among the hardest hit. In these nations, the number of coffee-harming days has climbed sharply, often more than 50 days above what would have occurred without human-driven warming. Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, saw about 70 extra days of heat annually due to carbon pollution.
Temperatures above 30°C are widely recognised by agronomists as extremely detrimental to arabica coffee plants, the variety prized for its flavour and quality, and suboptimal for robusta beans. Arabica plants in particular struggle when heat spikes coincide with key stages of flowering and fruiting, which can reduce bean size and overall yield. These disruptions have direct effects on growers’ livelihoods and the supply chain that delivers coffee to markets around the world.
Impacts on Farmers and Global Supply
For the millions of smallholder farmers who depend on coffee as their primary source of income, the rising heat poses both economic and physical challenges. Small growers, who make up about 80% of global coffee producers, often lack access to the capital and technology needed to adapt to new climate pressures. The study notes that in 2021, these producers received a tiny fraction of the financing necessary to implement adaptation measures such as shade systems or improved irrigation.
Heat stress not only reduces the quantity of coffee harvested but also affects the quality of beans, which influences market prices and falls hardest on those with limited resources. Higher temperatures can make plants more vulnerable to pests and diseases while reducing soil moisture, making traditional farming practices less reliable. Farmers in regions such as India’s Western Ghats have already reported more intense heat and inconsistent rainfall disrupting their cultivation cycles.
References:
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/more-coffee-harming-heat-due-to-carbon-pollution-2026
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/0711100
Banner image: Photo by Louis Hansel on Unsplash
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