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Recent social media posts around the globe in different languages have suggested that Africa is literally “splitting into two,” with a new ocean forming between the two halves as the continent tears apart.
They note that the Somali, Nubian, and Arabian tectonic plates are moving and urge people to watch this dramatic change in real time. We examined the science behind these claims. It is true that parts of eastern Africa are slowly pulling apart, but the timeline is extremely long (millions of years), and the process is not dramatic or sudden. Geologists have long known that the African tectonic plate is splitting along the East African Rift into two pieces. This “rift” runs thousands of kilometers from the Red Sea down through Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania and marks where the western block called the Nubian Plate and the eastern block-the Somali Plate are diverging. More details can be read here and here.
In northeast Africa (the Afar Triangle of Ethiopia/Eritrea), a triple junction forms where the Nubian Plate, the Somali Plate, and the Arabian Plate all meet. In short, yes – eastern Africa is part of an active rift zone—but this rifting has been happening for tens of millions of years and continues at only a few millimeters per year. More details can be read here
The East African Rift System (EARS) is a network of faults and volcanoes stretching over 3,000–6,000 km from the Gulf of Aden (north) to Mozambique (south). More details can be read here It includes the Main Ethiopian (Afar) Rift and the Kenyan/Tanzanian Rift Valley. Scientists estimate the rifting began roughly 20–30 million years ago. Over that time, the Somali Plate has been gradually “peeling away” from the rest of Africa, creating the chain of lakes and volcanoes that mark the Great Rift Valley.
Today the divergence rate is measured in millimeters per year. GPS data show the Nubian and Somali plates are moving apart at about 6–7 mm per year, a few inches per century. The Arabian Plate is also moving north, opening the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts at roughly 1–1.5 cm per year. These are normal tectonic speeds. Because the movement is so slow, nothing is visibly tearing or sinking on a human timescale. The crust is gradually stretching and thinning—for example, in the Afar region, the continental crust is already only ~20 km thick instead of the typical ~35 km . Over millions of years, magma wells up and builds new crust from volcanic lava in parts of the rift. But the process is incremental.
What does this mean for a “new ocean”? In geological theory, a fully mature ocean basin can form when continental rifting continues until seawater floods the gap as happened when South America split from Africa in the Mesozoic. In East Africa, scientists say this is possible but very far in the future. Models and observations suggest that if rifting continues uninterrupted, the Somali Plate which carries much of Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. could eventually break away to form a separate landmass or island. Ocean water from the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden might flood in behind it, creating a new sea or “sixth ocean.” More details can be read here and here
However, estimates of when that might happen range broadly: tens of millions of years. For example, National Geographic notes, “The Somali plate may completely separate from the Nubian plate and form a separate landmass comparable to Madagascar or New Zealand,” but adds, “That separation isn’t expected to happen for another 50 million years.” Geophysicist Ken Macdonald has said that, at current rates, “a sea about the size of the current Red Sea might form in about 20–30 million years.” Other researchers estimate the full continental breakup and new ocean basin could take 5–10 million years or more.
Even on a 5–10 Myr timescale, that is far beyond any human lifetime or near-term concern. More details can be read here
In sum: No new ocean will “spring up” anytime soon. All sources agree the process is extremely slow. The idea of a “new African Ocean” is a long-range projection, not an event we can witness now.
Geological context: Why does this rifting happen? Geologists explain that a mantle plume—a hot upwelling of deep mantle rock—lies under East Africa and is pushing the crust upward and apart. More details can be read here
This plume (often called the East African or Afar plume) has been weakening the lithosphere (Earth’s crust and upper mantle) for tens of millions of years. As the crust domes up, it stretches and fractures. Many large volcanic eruptions (“flood basalts”) in Ethiopia/Kenya (filling rift valleys with lava) testify to this activity. Over time, the crust thins until it breaks, initiating oceanic spreading. In fact, scientists note that the volcanic activity at Ethiopia’s Rift (e.g., at Erta Ale, with its long-lived lava lake) is strikingly similar to processes at mid-ocean ridges. In other words, East Africa is a “laboratory above water” for how a new ocean might form.
Cracks and Crises: What about the dramatic videos and photos (like the 2018 Kenya fissure) fueling these claims? Geologists emphasize that recent road rips were not evidence of sudden new rifting. For example, the March 2018 highway crack in Kenya (up to 15 m deep and wide) grabbed headlines. Experts like Lucia Pérez Díaz explain that this crevice existed before and only became visible after heavy rain washed away ash from older volcanic deposits. One scientist noted that “a large crack, stretching several kilometers, made a sudden appearance… but the consensus among geologists is that it was a pre-existing crevice” hidden by ash until rains uncovered it. Similar explanations apply to smaller fissures: localized erosion or fault slippage can produce cracks, but they are tiny pieces of the huge rift structure already there.
In other words, the viral images are real but not new: they show parts of the East African Rift system that were already under stress. As Temblor magazine explains, the recent Kenyan crack “did not form ”overnight”—it was a millennia-old crack revealed by rain and erosion. That story illustrates a key point: ordinary weather or erosion, not a sudden tectonic leap, caused these cracks to appear now. So is Africa “tearing apart” today? Virtually all geologists say no—not on any human timescale. The African Plate is indeed slowly splitting into the Nubian (west) and Somali (east) plates , but this has been going on for 20–30 million years and will take tens of millions more. Even if magma inflows and faulting are making the rift more active, it’s more like a gentle pull than a sudden tear. For example, a recent modeling study concluded that “Africa will not tear completely for at least another five million years, but the groundwork is happening fast enough for satellites to watch.” This shows that satellites and scientists track the process.
The social media posts about the generation of a new ocean in Africa are “mostly legitimate” but misleading to some extent: yes, East Africa is an active rift zone, but the portrayal of an imminent split is sensationalized. In reality, current activity poses no new hazard beyond ordinary earthquakes and volcanic eruptions already known in the region. The long-term prospect of a new ocean is interesting to science, but it is a concept spanning geological epochs—not next week or next year.
References:
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/africa-splitting
Are We Seeing a New Ocean Starting to Form in Africa?
Giant crack opens in East African Rift Valley
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/east-african-great-rift-valley-crack-spd
https://www.earth.com/news/great-continental-rift-african-splitting-landmass-creating-ocean-basin
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/east-african-great-rift-valley-crack-spd
https://www.space.com/astronomy/earth/a-newly-forming-ocean-may-split-africa-apart-scientists-say
Giant crack opens in East African Rift Valley
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