9 Indian States among top 50 facing high climate risks worldwide: XDI Report

By Aayushi Sharma with inputs from Dr Partha Jyoti Das

A “world-first” index published recently evaluates the high climate risk posed by catastrophic weather events to different locations across the world because of vulnerable physical infrastructure. It has identified 9 Indian States along with 50 other locations from other regions as being the most fragile.

The report, titled “Gross Domestic Climate Risk”, released on Feb 20 by Australia’s Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), a global organization specializing in climate risk analysis for regions, banks and companies, calculates the ‘physical climate risk’ to built environments like buildings and properties across 2,600 States and provinces globally in 2050. XDI is a part of the Climate Risk Group of companies which work to quantify the costs of climate change. 

XDI’s Model and ADR

This system uses global climate models, combined with local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes and calculates the damage to the built environment based on the scenario of global warming of 3 degrees above the pre-industrial average by the end of this century.

This index assigned an Aggregated Damage Ratio (ADR) to each region. ADR signifies the total amount of damage a region’s built environment would sustain in 2050. A high ADR signifies more damage. 

Physical risk

Physical risk refers to vulnerability from eight climate change events: 

1. heat waves,
2. coastal flooding (and sea level rise),
3. extreme wind,
4. forest fire,
5. soil movement (or other drought-related hazards),
6. free thaw,
7. riverine and
8. surface flooding

The report compared the risk across territories based on modeled projections of damage, using global climate models, local weather and environmental data.

Key Findings

• 9 out of 50 regions in the world facing high climate risk due to a fragile physical infrastructure are located in India. 
• 14 Indian states have been ranked among the top 100 states for climate risk in the built environment.
• Overall, India, China and the United States -globally significant states- are home to 80% of the most vulnerable cities and centers of economic activity around the world. 
• Flooding is only one of the eight different climate-related hazards the report has considered. These are riverine and surface flooding which is the biggest threat to the built environment globally. There is also coastal inundation (coastal flooding) apart from other threats like extreme heat, forest fire, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind, and freeze thaw.
• Since the report is focused only on the built environment, it does not include the climate risks on biodiversity or human wellbeing, agricultural production, and other such impacts.
• Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk by Aggregated Damage Ratio, with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 falling in this region.

Climate risk prediction : Indian Scenario

As per the analysis of the report, Assam, ranked 28, Bihar at 22 and Tamil Nadu which occupies the 36th spot in the list had the highest ADR among the Indian States. The maximum increase of climate risk is in Assam- rising up to 330% by 2050 as compared to 1990.

The other vulnerable states are Uttar Pradesh at the 25th spot, Rajasthan at 32nd, Maharashtra at 38, Gujarat is ranked 48th, Punjab is at 50 and Kerala occupies the 52nd spot. The economically significant city of Mumbai is also identified as being at notable risk. 

In 2019, the Climate Risk Index ranked countries based on their vulnerability to fatalities and economic losses and found India to be the seventh-worst hit due to extreme weather events. A report in 2022 by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that India recorded the most extreme weather events in 2022; there was a disaster on 247 out of 273 days in 9 months between January 1 to September 30.  

Notably, the most damage posed to built infrastructure globally is caused by “riverine and surface flooding or flooding combined with coastal inundation”, the report pointed out. 

Assam has witnessed an exponential increase in flood events since 2011, and it had 15 districts of India’s 25 identified as most vulnerable to climate change, the State’s Science, Technology and Climate Change Minister Keshab Mahanta had told the Assembly last September. Further, 11 of the 36 districts in Maharashtra were found to be “highly vulnerable” to extreme weather events, droughts and dwindling water security, according to a 2021 report.

Climate risk prediction : Global Scenario

Asia dominates the rankings with 114 of the top 200 regions located in the continent with the mention of Pakistan, Indonesia and most Southeast Asian countries. China has 29 states in the top 100 in 2050 and 26 in the top 50. Two of China’s largest sub-national economies Jiangsu and Shandong top the global ranking.

It is followed by the U.S. which has 18 regions in the top 100 list; including the economically significant regions of Florida, Texas and California. These three states appear in the top 20 of the global ranking of states and provinces in 2050 with Florida at 10th, California at the 19th spot and Texas occupying the 20th rank and close to half of all US states are in the top five per cent (top 132) of those most at risk in the world. 

The report also drew attention to the flooding in Pakistan between June and August 2022 which affected 30% of the nation, partially or fully damaging more than 900,000 houses in Sindh province.

States and provinces from Australia, Belgium, Italy, Canada, and Germany are also represented in the top 100. Buenos Aires, So Paulo, Jakarta, Beijing, Ho Chi Minh City, Taiwan, and other highly developed and significant economic centres are among the top 100 cities on the index.

Experts insights on the report 

“The report has revealed results about India that are eye opening and worthy of consideration by relevant national and state governments for risk identification, risk management and resilience building of those states that rank high in the GDCR ranks.” Dr. Partha Das, climate scientist and in house-expert CFC, said.

“Assam, the small state in northeast India known globally for the huge loss and damage that it suffers from multiple climate-induced hazards (such as flood, river erosion, landslide, thunderstorm etc.) is ranked third in this list in terms of risk to extreme weather events. This report says that among the top nine most vulnerable states in India, Assam ranks highest in terms of percentage increase in damage, by 331 percent, during 1990-2050, followed by Bihar (141%), Uttar Pradesh (96%) and Maharashtra (81%). From lived experience, it is obvious that flooding (riverine flooding, flash flooding and coastal flooding/storm surge) along with heat extreme drought, tropical cyclones, and forest fire are the most important disasters that have enhanced the climatic risk of these states in India. In the case of Assam, the documented evidence of flood becoming more intense and devastating justifies the projection about the highest increase in damage in the coming years. Since this report refers to climatic risk to the built environment, urbanisation and consequent development of infrastructure will play an important role in determining the future climatic risks of these and other states in India. This makes it necessary for the country to adopt appropriate policies and practices so that urban expansion and development activities are pursued following strategies that ensure ecological sustainability, emission reduction and resilience in communities. Technological innovation and progressive policies should lead the country towards climate-resilient infrastructure build-up for disaster risk management and urban development.” Dr. Das added.

Rohan Hamden, XDI CEO said, “This is the most sophisticated global analysis of physical climate risk to date, offering a breadth and depth and granularity on a scale we haven’t seen before. Now – for the first time – the finance industry can directly compare Mumbai, New York and Berlin using a like-for-like methodology.”