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Climate change is beginning to redraw the global map of livestock farming in ways that could reshape food systems and rural livelihoods. A new study shows that large swathes of land now used for grazing cattle, sheep and goats may no longer offer the climatic conditions these animals need by the end of this century. Scientists warn that rising global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could make up to half of the world’s current grazing lands unsuitable for livestock by the year 2100. The findings raise deep concerns about the future of pastoral communities, livestock production and food systems in regions that depend on grassland grazing.
Climate Change and the Shrinking World of Grassland Grazing
Researchers have identified what they call a “safe climatic space” for grazing systems. This is the combination of temperature, rainfall, humidity and wind conditions under which cattle, sheep and goats thrive, and grasslands remain productive. Under current conditions, these areas support up to 1.6 billion animals and more than 100 million pastoralists around the world. The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that as the planet warms, this safe space will shift and shrink. Between 36-50% of land now suitable for grazing could lose its climatic viability by 2100.
Regions that today have moderate weather and regular rainfall could become hotter or drier, making it harder for grass to grow and animals to find water and feed. The consequences of these changes are not limited to livestock. Grassland ecosystems support biodiversity, help store soil carbon and are an important part of cultural identity for many pastoral communities. When these systems change, it can ripple through local economies and the natural world alike.
What This Means for Pastoralists and Local Economies
For pastoralists in many parts of the world, grazing land is more than just open space. It is the foundation of life. People who raise livestock often have few alternatives for income, and their food security is tied to the health of their animals and the grasslands they rely on.
With large areas projected to become unsuitable, pastoral families in vulnerable regions may be forced to adapt rapidly. Some may seek new ways to manage herds or move to more distant pastures. Others may abandon traditional grazing altogether and look for work in towns and cities. Both pathways come with social and economic stress.
The study highlights that these changes will be felt most intensely in countries that already face food insecurity, fragile political systems and limited economic resources. When livelihoods are tied so closely to the land, any reduction in grassland productivity can lead to hardship and instability.
Africa at the Frontline of Grazing Land Loss
Africa stands out in the study as one of the regions likely to see the sharpest reductions in suitable grazing land. The continent already experiences high temperatures, and future warming could push many grasslands beyond the limits livestock can tolerate. In a scenario where emissions continue to rise unchecked, up to 65% of Africa’s current grazing land may become climatically unsuitable by 2100. Even under lower emissions scenarios, significant losses are expected.
As temperatures increase, areas such as the Ethiopian Highlands, parts of the East African Rift Valley and the Kalahari Basin could see changing grass growth patterns. These shifts will not just affect the animals. Communities that have grazed cattle, goats and sheep for generations may find their traditional ways of life under pressure. Adapting grazing practices or switching to new forms of livelihood could be difficult without strong support systems, infrastructure and investment.
References:
https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2534015123
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