Indians feel most likely to get displaced due to Climate Change: Survey

India topped among 34 countries in a global survey in terms of feeling most likely that they or their family will be displaced from their home as a result of climate change in the next 25 years. The survey was conducted by Ipsos for the World Economic Forum among 23,507 people in 34 countries between July 22 and August 5.

Almost two-thirds (65%) of those surveyed in India felt that it is likely that they will need to move in the next 25 years because of climate change. This was the highest percentage recorded in the survey followed by Turkey (64%) and Malaysia (49%) among 34 countries expressing awareness about the likelihood of getting displaced because of climate change related issues. 

In India, 76% of those surveyed also said that they expect that climate change will have a severe effect in their areas over the next 10 years. 

This survey result comes at a time when India has witnessed huge and unprecedented climate disasters recently in the form of heatwaves, droughts, cloudbursts and floods. UN reports document that India is the seventh most climate change affected country. Nearly 5 million people in India were internally displaced due to climate change, and disasters in 2021, according to a United Nations report. According to the data of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), in 2020, around 39 lakhs people were displaced by environmental disasters which is around 1000 times more than the persons displaced by conflicts. 

Globally, an average of 35% say it is likely they will be displaced 

Also, among the 34 countries surveyed in the study, an average of 35% say it is likely they or their family will be displaced from their home as a result of climate change in the next 25 years. Out of the 35%, 10% feel it is “very likely” while the rest 25% feel it is “somewhat likely” that they will get displaced. 

In a broader context, the likelihood of getting displaced is felt by almost two-thirds in India (65%) and Turkey (64%) and almost half in Malaysia (49%), Brazil (49%), Spain (46%), and South Africa (45%). Fewer than one in four feel the same in Sweden (17%), Argentina (21%), the Netherlands (21%), and Poland (23%), in contrast. 

The perceived likelihood of being displaced because of climate change decreases significantly with age. Globally, 43% of those under 35 say it is likely they will need to move in the next 25 years because of climate change vs. 37% among those aged 35 to 49 and just 25% among those aged 50 to 74. At the same time, reported and expected experience with severe effects of climate change varies little along demographic variables in aggregate at a global level. 

56% felt climate change has already had a severe impact where they live

The study found that 56% (more than half) of all adults surveyed say climate change has already had a severe effect in the area where they live. Out of which 15% adults said that it is ‘very severe’ and 41% adults said it is ‘somewhat severe’. 

The proportion of adults surveyed describing the effect climate change has had so far in the area where they live as very or somewhat severe ranges from 25% in Sweden to 75% in case of countries like Mexico. 

Twenty-two countries said that they have already been severely impacted by climate change including nine countries where it exceeds two-thirds of all those surveyed: Mexico, Hungary, Turkey, Colombia, Spain, Italy, India, Chile, and France.

The survey finds notable regional differences within several countries where they were measured. It may be likely due to the recent experience with extreme heat, drought, forest fires, or floods. For example, the prevalence of having incurred severe effects of climate change is significantly higher than the national average in Greater London in comparison to all of Great Britain.

71% expect a severe impact of climate change in the next 10 years

A majority in every single country expects that over the next ten years, climate change will leave a severe impact in their area. Most adults in every country surveyed expressed concern about being severely impacted by climate change in the next decade. It varies from 52% in Malaysia to more than 80% in Portugal, Mexico, Hungary, Turkey, Chile, South Korea, Spain, and Italy.

71% expect climate change to have a very or somewhat severe impact in their area over the next 10 years on average across the 34 countries. Out of the 71%, 30% say it is “very severe” and 41% say it is “somewhat severe”. 

This is 15 points higher than the percentage saying climate change has already had a severe impact where they live. While the difference is highest in Sweden (31) and Portugal (30), in the case of Saudi Arabia, more say climate change has already had a severe impact on them where they live rather than believing that climate change will severely impact them over the next 10 years.