India at COP28: What Goals Does the World’s Largest Democracy Seek?

By Vivek Saini

India asserted itself as a leader of the global south at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized wealthy nations for indiscriminate exploitation of nature. However, India, now the world’s most populous nation, grapples with reducing its heavy reliance on coal while addressing poverty, a significant national priority.

The Global South’s Plight

Modi emphasizes the shared consequences of environmental exploitation, significantly impacting the residents of the global south. As the third-largest carbon producer, India contributed 7.3% of global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2022. Yet, with 1.43 billion people, it accounts for 18% of the world’s population, presenting a per capita emission far lower than developed nations.

India’s energy needs heavily rely on coal, constituting 73% of its electricity in 2022. Modi underlines the necessity of coal for economic development and poverty reduction, asserting the need to allocate a fair share to developing countries in the global carbon budget.

COP Strategy: A Defensive Stance 

India strategically abstains from signing declarations emphasizing decarbonization, including the Global  Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, reflecting a defensive stance at COP28. Anjal Prakash, a climate-policy researcher, suggests that India perceives the negotiations as biased towards prosperous economies and insists on wealthy nations demonstrating their commitment to decarbonization before expecting the same from others.

India positions itself as a leader advocating for the nations of the global south, asserting that imposing the same 2050 deadline for net zero on all nations is unfair, especially considering the historical emissions of developed nations. Prakash argues that India takes this leadership role to address the structural problems within the COP system.

Despite its continued reliance on coal, India is investing in decarbonization measures. The nation aims to increase the share of solar and wind power in its electricity production to 35% by 2032, up from 10.6% in 2022. Additionally, India plans to raise the share of non-fossil-fuel power in its generation capacity from 43% to 50% by 2030.

UNFCCC Pledges and Carbon Reduction

If India successfully fulfills its UNFCCC pledges and accelerates renewable-energy deployment, models by Climate Analytics suggest that carbon dioxide emissions will slow and peak in the 2030s. This aligns with India’s self-imposed 2070 deadline for achieving net-zero emissions.

India, like other emerging economies, measures its climate actions using emissions intensity, aiming to reduce it by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030. The country hesitates to adopt the metric of absolute emissions, focusing on economic growth and developmental concerns. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a researcher, argues that India will consider total emissions only when it becomes a high-income economy.

The Push for a Loss and Damage Fund

At COP28, climate-vulnerable countries, including India, actively contributed to adopting a landmark agreement on a loss and damage fund. This fund aims to compensate low-income countries bearing the brunt of climate-change damage. While emphasizing the urgent need for disbursement, countries clarify the fund’s handling to avoid delays.

India’s role at COP28 reflects a delicate balance between addressing its developmental priorities, particularly poverty reduction through coal, and its commitment to global climate goals. The nation positions itself as a leader advocating for the global south while navigating the challenges of transitioning to cleaner energy sources. The outcome of these negotiations will undoubtedly shape India’s trajectory in the fight against climate change.

References:

1. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC
2. https://www.iea.org/countries/india
3. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ipcc-urbanisation-climate-change-7796566/
4. https://www.ispp.org.in/can-india-achieve-net-zero-carbon-emission-by-2070/28858/
5. https://www.cseindia.org/webinar-3-climate-mitigation-in-india-11924
6. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change