False Claims About Lake-Effect Snow and Climate Change, Explained

Claim: Lake-effect snow has nothing to do with climate change. This narrative is getting dumber by the day. Thank God the whole planet is rejecting it.

Fact: False. While lake-effect snow is a natural meteorological phenomenon, scientific research confirms that climate change influences intensity and frequency by altering critical factors such as lake temperatures and ice cover.

Claim Post:

Lake effect snow has nothing to do with climate change. This narrative is getting dumber by the day. Thank God the whole planet is rejecting it. pic.twitter.com/jmTZJEk8nj

— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) December 1, 2024

What does the post say

In a Twitter post, Dr. Matthew Wielicki rejected any connection between lake-effect snow and climate change, describing the association as baseless. He also suggested that this perspective is being broadly dismissed. Such statements overlook extensive scientific evidence showing that climate change directly affects regional weather patterns, including those contributing to lake-effect snow.

What we found

Dr Wielicki’s claim is False. Numerous peer-reviewed studies and weather reports have established that climate change significantly impacts the drivers of lake-effect snow. Rising lake temperatures, diminished ice cover, and shifts in atmospheric conditions—all tied to global warming—influence the intensity and frequency of these events.

The Mechanics of Lake-Effect Snow

Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air flows over a lake’s warmer, open surface. This process allows the lake to transfer heat and moisture to the air, which rises, cools, and condenses to form clouds. When these clouds move over land, they release heavy snowfall. The phenomenon is governed by lake temperatures, ice cover, wind direction, and prevailing atmospheric conditions. During colder months, unfrozen lakes serve as substantial heat and moisture reservoirs. Research published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that ice cover on the Great Lakes plummeted roughly 71% between 1973 and 2010. Lakes are more exposed to cold air with less ice, intensifying lake-effect snow events.

Warmer lake temperatures contribute to increased lake-effect snowfall, as climate change prolongs the period lakes retain heat. This extra moisture can lead to heavier snowfall when combined with cold air masses sweeping across the region. Studies have shown that lakes, particularly in the Great Lakes area, retain heat later into the fall and early winter due to rising temperatures. This creates more favourable conditions for snowfall when cold air masses move over the warmer waters. Researchers from institutions like the University of Wisconsin-Madison are actively studying this phenomenon to improve weather forecasting models for lake-effect snow.

Geography also plays a role. Regions downwind of large lakes, such as surrounding the Great Lakes, are particularly vulnerable to extreme snowfall. For example, last week, Lake Erie’s warm, unfrozen surface significantly contributed to the record-breaking Buffalo snowstorm.

How Climate Change Shapes Lake-Effect Snow

1. Warmer Lakes and Extended Open Water Periods

Climate change is causing lakes to freeze later and thaw earlier, extending the duration of open water during winter months. This extended period allows lakes to absorb and store more heat, which, in turn, fuels lake-effect snowstorms.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), surface water temperatures in the Great Lakes have increased by an average of 2.5°F in recent decades. This warming trend correlates with rising instances of extreme lake-effect snow events.

Unfrozen lakes act as energy hubs, driving more intense snowstorms. NOAA researchers have linked higher lake temperatures and reduced ice cover to a consistent increase in the frequency and severity of these snow events.

2. Disruption of Atmospheric Patterns

Global warming also alters atmospheric dynamics, including the polar vortex, a strong wind encircling the North Pole. A weakened polar vortex, which some researchers associate with climate change, can allow cold Arctic air to spill southward.

This southward movement of frigid air interacts with the warmer, moisture-rich air above unfrozen lakes, creating the perfect conditions for lake-effect snow. A study highlighted that climate change contributes to more erratic jet stream patterns, increasing the likelihood of cold air outbreaks over regions such as the Great Lakes.

The unpredictability of winter weather in the United States exemplifies this trend. The American Meteorological Society notes that human-driven global warming influences both the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks, which, in turn, intensify lake-effect snowstorms.

3. Long-Term Projections

While lake-effect snow events may become more intense in the short term due to warming lakes, long-term climate models suggest a decline in snowfall as winters grow increasingly warm. By the late 21st century, many lake-adjacent regions could see more rain than snow during winter, significantly altering regional precipitation patterns.

References:

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/micro-articles/lake-effect-snow

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/lake-effect-snow-buffalo-watertown-cleveland-great-lakes-arctic-blast

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/great-lakes

https://www.weather.gov/apx/les

https://news.uchicago.edu/story/jet-stream-will-get-faster-climate-change-continues-study-finds

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024EF004622

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