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A viral post by Steve Milloy on X claims that February 2025 was the 18th coldest in the U.S. in the past 45 years. The post compares February 2025 to previous years—1981, 1991, and 2017—arguing that if emissions drive warming, such a temperature drop shouldn’t happen. However, this argument misrepresents how climate works by focusing on short-term regional weather variations rather than long-term global trends.
Claim Post
Claim 1: February 2025 was the 18th coldest in the U.S. in the 45-year satellite era.
Fact: The claim is misleading because it cherry-picks data from one month in one region while ignoring the bigger picture of global climate trends.
Temperature fluctuations from month to month and year to year are normal due to natural variability. While some parts of the U.S. may have experienced cooler-than-average temperatures in February 2025, many regions recorded above-average warmth. For instance, Delaware saw temperatures 2.9°F higher than the 1991-2020 average. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center had also projected that most of the country would experience warmer-than-average conditions during this period.
When analyzing climate change, scientists look at long-term trends, not isolated weather events. A single colder month does not indicate a reversal of global warming, just as one unusually hot day doesn’t prove the world is overheating. Global temperature records show a consistent upward trend, with the past decade being the hottest on record.
Claim 2: February 2025 was cooler than 1981, 1991, and 2017, despite decades of emissions.
Fact: This comparison is misleading because short-term cooling in a specific month or region does not disprove the long-term warming trend.
Climate change is measured over decades and centuries, not individual months. While February 2025 may have been cooler than those specific years in the U.S., global temperatures continue to rise. In fact, January 2025 was the warmest January ever recorded, and data suggests February followed a similar pattern on a global scale.
Short-term temperature variations are influenced by multiple factors, including ocean circulation patterns, solar cycles, and regional weather anomalies. For example, La Niña events tend to bring cooler temperatures to some areas, while El Niño can cause temporary spikes in warmth. However, these natural fluctuations do not change the fact that human-driven emissions are pushing long-term global temperatures upward.
Claim 3: If emissions always cause warming, how can a colder February exist?
Fact: This claim misrepresents climate science by suggesting that every single month must be warmer than the last for climate change to be real.
Climate change does not mean that every day, month, or year will be hotter than the previous one. Instead, it refers to a long-term warming trend that occurs alongside short-term fluctuations. Weather is influenced by many factors, including atmospheric patterns, ocean currents, and seasonal shifts. A colder-than-average month in one region does not contradict decades of scientific data showing a steady rise in global temperatures.
Moreover, focusing solely on U.S. temperatures ignores what’s happening worldwide. While one part of the planet may experience a temporary cold spell, other regions often see record-breaking heat. In recent years, extreme heat waves, shrinking ice sheets, and rising sea levels have all provided strong evidence that the Earth is warming.
Understanding Weather Variability and Its Role in Climate Trends
One of the most common misunderstandings in climate science is the conflation of weather and climate. Weather represents short-term atmospheric conditions, while climate refers to long-term patterns and trends over decades or centuries. When climate skeptics use short-term weather fluctuations—such as a colder-than-average month in one region—to dispute global warming, they overlook the fundamental principles of climate science and statistical analysis.
Climate scientists analyze long-term data to assess global temperature changes rather than relying on isolated anomalies. According to NASA and the NOAA, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 1.1°C (2°F) since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the last four decades. This long-term warming trend is evident in datasets compiled by organizations such as the Hadley Centre (UK Met Office), NASA’s GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
Short-term temperature variations, such as the one observed in February 2025 in certain parts of the U.S., are influenced by natural climate variability, which includes phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillations, and volcanic activity. ENSO, for example, significantly impacts global weather patterns, with El Niño typically causing warmer global temperatures and La Niña leading to temporary cooling. However, even La Niña years in recent decades have been significantly warmer than those in the early 20th century, demonstrating that the underlying warming trend persists despite short-term cooling episodes.
Scientific studies have also debunked the notion that local or short-term cooling disproves global warming. A study published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences analyzed temperature records across South America from 1980 to 2014 and found an increase in the magnitude and frequency of heat waves, with no significant changes detected for cold waves.
When interpreting climate trends, it is critical to rely on global datasets, statistical analyses, and peer-reviewed research rather than isolated regional weather anomalies. While cold months will still occur due to natural variability, the overwhelming scientific consensus remains that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are driving long-term planetary warming. The reliance on short-term cooling events to argue against climate change is not only misleading but fundamentally misrepresents the nature of climate science and observational data.
References
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/10/world-temperature-hottest-year-noaa
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/06/global-temperatures-february-record
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/chttps:// www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/06/ghttps://
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/ghttps://
www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/chttps://
www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/hhttps://
nhess.copernicus.org/articles/16/821/2016
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