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By Vivek Saini
Global warming is accelerating the intensity and frequency of El Niño events, with new projections indicating that by 2050, nearly half of these occurrences could reach extreme levels. El Niño, a climate phenomenon known for its disruptive influence on global weather patterns, already brings catastrophic consequences such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. A study published in Nature reveals that as global temperatures continue to rise, the severity of El Niño will escalate, posing significant threats to ecosystems, agriculture, and critical infrastructure worldwide.
El Niño: A Worsening Threat
The new study, published in Nature, builds on recent data to forecast a marked rise in the intensity of El Niño events in the coming decades. Using ancient climate data from foraminifera shells, microscopic marine organisms with a calcium carbonate shell that preserve information about past climate, and sophisticated computer models, the researchers reconstructed past temperatures. This revealed that extreme El Niño events, such as the Ice Age, were far less common during colder periods. In contrast, the likelihood of extreme El Niñosincreases as global temperatures rise.
El Niño forms when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise at least 0.9°F above the long-term average for an extended period. Even small temperature shifts can significantly disrupt wind patterns and ocean currents, triggering unusual global weather phenomena such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts. When ocean temperatures rise by 3.6°F or more, the event is classified as an extreme El Niño, leading to even more devastating consequences.
Pedro DiNezio, one of the study’s lead authors, highlighted the urgency of these findings, noting that an increase in extreme El Niño events could lead to widespread global impacts such as more intense heatwaves, droughts, and floods. According to DiNezio, society might not have sufficient time to recover from one extreme event before another strikes, a concern that further underlines the need for better predictive models and adaptation strategies.
Climate Change and the Future of El Niño
The study ties the increase in extreme El Niño events directly to the warming climate, which alters the dynamics of ocean currents and atmospheric conditions. Historically, El Niño has been known to cause extreme weather patterns like severe droughts in some regions and intense rainfall in others. The study shows that with global temperatures expected to surpass the 2°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, the frequency of such events could surge dramatically.
What makes this forecast particularly alarming is the compounded effect of El Niño alongside the ongoing global warming caused by human activities. In the past, La Niña, El Niño’s more fantastic counterpart, often helped stabilise global temperatures. However, with La Niña events becoming less frequent, the likelihood of more frequent and powerful El Niños grows, amplifying the threat to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide.
Socio-Economic and Environmental Implications
The increase in extreme El Niño events could have dire consequences for human populations and ecosystems. Droughts could ravage food-producing regions, particularly Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, threatening food security. Flooding and rising sea levels could displace millions, particularly in coastal and low-lying areas. Additionally, global supply chains, which rely on stable weather patterns, could face unprecedented disruptions, affecting economies worldwide. These disruptions could lead to shortages of critical commodities, increased production costs, and reduced business profitability.
The environmental impacts are equally alarming. Marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, have already been devastated by marine heatwaves linked to El Niño. More frequent extreme El Niños could further accelerate biodiversity loss, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Combined with other environmental pressures, this could lead to the collapse of vulnerable ecosystems, disrupting natural balance and potentially driving some species to extinction.
Call for Urgent Action
The study highlights the critical need for immediate global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. Researchers emphasise the urgency of improving forecasting and early-warning systems, enabling governments and communities to better prepare for intensifying El Niño events. Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and enhancing adaptive capacities are essential to mitigate extreme weather’s socio-economic impacts, particularly in vulnerable regions. Rapid and decisive action is necessary to protect food security and economic stability, with coastal cities, agriculture, and fisheries at heightened risk. Moreover, advancing climate modelling capabilities will be crucial in equipping societies to face increasingly frequent and severe disruptions.
References:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07984-y
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