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India’s food security is at risk as climate change is expected to cause a 6-10% drop in rice and wheat production. These staple crops are a key part of the daily diet for millions nationwide. This alarming projection is raising the alarm over food security in a nation where most of its population depends on these staple grains. As the climate becomes increasingly unpredictable, millions of farmers are at unprecedented risk to their livelihoods and the food supply chain in India.
Projected Declines in Crop Yields
NICRA data shows that wheat yields will decline by 6-25% by 2100. In irrigated rice, yields are likely to fall 7% by 2050 and 10% by 2080. This is worrisome because more than 80% of Indian farmers have less than two hectares of land and would be vulnerable to such changes.
However, several climate-related factors are anticipated to lower crop yields: increased temperature, a shift in precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather conditions. Such changes can negatively impact crop growth and lower agricultural productivity, raising significant challenges to the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers across the country.
Impact on Food Security
India produced 113.29 million tonnes of wheat and 137 million tonnes of rice in the 2023-24 agricultural year, providing essential food for its 1.4 billion population. Here, 80% of the population depends on government-subsidized grains. A decline in production could lead to shortages and increased prices, disproportionately affecting low-income households and exacerbating food insecurity.
This will further impact India’s public distribution system, which ensures access to food for vulnerable populations. A decline in staple crop yields will also compel increased imports into the country, straining the nation’s economy and affecting grain markets globally.
Broader Environmental Impacts
Beyond crop yields, climate change affects other critical aspects of India’s environment. Rising sea temperatures are causing fish to migrate to cooler, deeper waters, disrupting coastal fishing communities and threatening their livelihoods. In addition, the melting of Himalayan glaciers is amplifying water scarcity, affecting over a billion people in India and China who depend on these water resources.
Climate change is leading to more frequent extreme weather events and making it harder to predict heavy rainfall. “The time to predict such events has decreased from three days to just one and a half days,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department.
The melting of Himalayan glaciers is adding to water scarcity concerns. Ravichandran, a leading expert, explained, “Decreased snowfall and increased melting mean less water for over two billion people in India and China.” Known as the Third Pole, the Himalayan and Hindukush mountain ranges provide water to nearly one-seventh global population.
India has also experienced a noticeable rise in its average temperature, which has increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius since 1901. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with the average minimum temperature being 0.90 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average. Experts stress that urgent climate action is critical to protecting the environment and ensuring a sustainable future.
References:
http://www.nicra-icar.in/nicrarevised/index.php/component/content/article?layout=edit&id=256
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=20585344
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