Climate Migration Reshapes America  Map

By Vivek Saini 

Within the complex structure of American communities, a subtle yet impactful shift is occurring, driven by the persistent influence of climate change. Newly gathered data from First Street Foundation and its partners reveals a story of internal migration shaping the nation. People are strategically opting to depart areas prone to flooding, resulting in the emergence of “climate abandonment” zones. This research delves into the intricate specifics, highlighting the localized consequences of climate-induced alterations. It offers a discerning exploration of the changing population dynamics at the heart of such communities, delving down to the detailed level of census blocks.

Local exodus: Flood fear forces millions to flee their homes

Migration within American communities is presently unfolding in response to climate change, with people moving away from areas prone to flooding. This phenomenon has created “climate abandonment” zones, reflecting a broader societal response to the changing environmental landscape. The urgency of these shifts is underscored by the tangible impact on communities and their dynamics.

In a recent development, a team of scientists from the nonprofit First Street Foundation, in collaboration with external partners, conducted groundbreaking research. This study delves into population data down to the census block level, unveiling localized insights into the ongoing climate change-related transitions within American regions.

The study underscores the growing implications of climate change, signaling increased population relocations and a profound impact on real estate. As global average surface temperatures continue to rise, the escalation of sea levels is resulting in more coastal flooding incidents. Notably, events like the recent flooding in Charleston, S.C., with its fourth-highest tide on record, illustrate the heightened risk. The convergence of land subsidence and sea level rise is transforming non-tropical storms into significant flooding threats, while intensified storms carrying more moisture contribute to the increase in the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall events, amplifying the likelihood of inland flooding.

These findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just a future concern but an ongoing reality, with tangible consequences affecting communities and their infrastructures. As we grapple with these challenges, there is an urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts of climate change on both coastal and inland regions, encompassing environmental considerations and social and economic dimensions.

Rising sea levels and extreme rainfall lead to “Climate Abandonment” zones

The study, published in the peer-reviewed Nature Communications journal, indicates the presence of climate abandonment areas across the United States, even within some of the nation’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. Over the last two decades, approximately 513 counties have experienced population growth exceeding the national average. However, within these regions, neighborhoods with a high risk of flooding have seen a population decline.

New Climate Abandonment Areas forecast to transition from areas of population growth to population loss due to flood risk. 

These affected areas are primarily concentrated in three regions:

• The Gulf Coast of Texas
• The Mid-Atlantic region spans from Washington, D.C., to New Jersey, and 
• Coastal Florida

Notably, Bexar County in Texas, which includes San Antonio, emerges as the municipality most profoundly impacted. Despite adding over 644,000 new residents between 2000 and 2020, about 17% of its Census blocks experienced a population decline, according to data from First Street. The study identifies other counties with a substantial share of population migration due to flooding risk, including Will County, Illinois, and El Paso County in Texas.

Over the next 30 years, the escalating flood risk attributed to climate change is anticipated to reach a tipping point in areas that have historically grown despite some flood risk. Once this threshold is surpassed, these regions are likely to transition into Climate Abandonment Areas, where the flood risk becomes substantial enough to prompt a decline in populations. Projections suggest that more than 443,000 blocks are expected to undergo this transformation into Climate Abandonment Areas.

Midwest Exodus: Climate reshapes U.S.

The analysis also delves into potential climate migration hotspots in the U.S. in the upcoming decades. Surprisingly, Midwestern states, including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, emerge as having some of the highest risks, according to the study.

This might seem counterintuitive, as explained by Jeremy Porter, a study co-author and head of climate change implications for First Street Foundation. The rationale lies in the forecast that coastal areas will likely remain attractive despite climate risks, especially for individuals seeking better job opportunities. In coastal cities, the allure of amenities and economic prospects often outweighs the deterrent effect of flood risks. Conversely, the Midwest and Northeast could experience “downward migration” because these regions lack the same appeal for those relocating.

Porter also added, “The significance of this research lies in its identification of a systematic pattern within historical population change data, affirming that climate migration is not a future event but a current reality, particularly evident in the case of the most prevalent form of migration—local moves.”

The migration trend of the U.S. population toward the Sun Belt has fueled substantial growth in states like Florida, California, and Texas. Currently, these three states collectively represent more than one-quarter of the entire U.S. population, boasting over 90.5 million residents. The synergy of this population surge and the rising occurrence of climate disasters has resulted in a concerning scenario. Damages inflicted by these disasters are escalating at a rate surpassing the overall increase in the frequency of climate hazards. This underscores the complex interplay between population dynamics and the intensifying impacts of climate-related events in these high-growth states.

The impact of extreme weather, characterized by increased flooding and massive wildfires, is significantly affecting homes. Across the U.S., nearly 36 million properties—equivalent to one-quarter of all U.S. real estate—confront escalating insurance costs and diminished coverage due to heightened climate risks, as revealed in an earlier analysis by First Street. 

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References 

1. https://firststreet.org/
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/17/nyregion/snakes-spores-and-sewage-life-in-the-neighborhood-called-the-hole.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
3. https://x.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1736436586945065046?s=20
4. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43493-8
5. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/07/what-are-census-blocks.html
6. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/climate-change-america-3-million-migrants-first-street-nature/
7. https://www.axios.com/2023/12/18/climate-change-migration-us
8. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insurance-policy-california-florida-uninsurable-climate-change-first-street/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab4i
9. Image source: https://firststreet.org/

Banner image: https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-holding-banner-2561628/