Will Earth become 4 degrees hotter in the next 10 years ??…. Find Out the Facts

Due to global climate change, there are many changes in the world’s climate. It is a fact that we should accept that many weather parameters are changing, like rainfall patterns, temperature, etc. Efforts are being made to control the amounts of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere through human activities through various conventions such as the Paris Convention. 

However, it appears that the temperature changes caused by climate change are exaggerated in many cases. Here is an explanation of the facts related to such a social media post stating that global warming will rise by 4 degrees Celsius in the next 10 years.

Social Media Posts

Below is the message that is spreading rapidly through social media networks these days.

Facebook | Archived

This means that in another 10 years, the temperature of the earth will increase by 4 degrees Celsius over the current temperature. Because of that, the Himalayan ice mountains will start melting.

Here are some comments on how users reacted to the post,

The Climate Fact Checks did an investigation on this matter.

Fact Check

First of all, we looked into whether there had been warnings about this temperature spike by recognized international organizations or academics. But no one had predicted that global warming would increase by 4 degrees Celsius over today’s temperature within ten years with clear evidence and experimental data.

However, many research groups have warned that unless steps are taken to reduce current greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures could rise by as much as 4 degrees Celsius above current levels by the end of this century.

As observed by the research groups and scientists related to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), the 2011-2020 temperature is about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the global average temperature of the earth’s surface during the years 1850-1900. The report is here

This situation is mainly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions . Although this increase in temperature does not appear to be a high value at first glance, if you look at the centuries of the last 2000 years, the highest temperature change on the earth has occurred in the last few decades.

Below is a graph showing how the temperature has changed since 1880 compared to the average temperature on the Earth’s surface during the twentieth century.

As visible in the graph above, the data shows that the Earth’s surface is warming very rapidly, with each decade more than double the rate of warming in the next decade to a value of 0.32° F (0.18° C). Also, considering the temperatures recorded since 1880, all ten years with the highest average temperature have been recorded after 2010, clearly indicating the intensity of global warming. More information is here. Archived.

Due to this, world leaders gathered and signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, aiming to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius this century. You can read the related details here. Archived

However, achieving this target is not an easy task and as shown in the social media post, all parties including governments, private sectors and other organizations need to be committed to saving the environment and implement concepts like Net Zero. 

However, some researchers warn that the temperature of the earth may increase by about 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next 10 years. A prediction has been made with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) in a research conducted by a group of researchers at the University of Stanford. You can read the related details here Archived

If anthropogenic  green house gas emissions  continue at the current rates , by 2100 AD global temperatures are more likely to rise by about 4 degrees Celsius than today’s temperatures, some scientists predict through climate models. You can read more about this here. Archived

In 2012, a study conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Climate Analytics under the support of the World Bank predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue without reduction, the global temperature will rise to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. As well as the fact that it can rise, many things can happen as a result of its adverse effects, such as rising sea levels and excessive heat falling on the earth. You can read more details about it here. Archived

Considering Himalayan glaciers are melting, the Temperature is already too high. Due to the severity of global warming, the rate of ice melting may increase further. You can read the related details here. Archived

Conclusion

Our research confirms that there are no credible scientific predictions that the global temperature will increase by 4 degrees Celsius in the next 10 years. However, some of the current forecasts indicate that there is a possibility that the global temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next 10-15 years. 

However, many researchers say that if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

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