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Rising ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific suggest that the recent La Niña episode is weakening and is likely to give way to neutral conditions in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organisation. The latest outlook indicates that ENSO neutral conditions are expected to become the dominant state early in 2026, as the cooling pattern that defines La Niña gradually weakens. While the transition may bring a period of relative climatic balance, forecasters say the probability of El Niño formation later in the year is beginning to rise, adding uncertainty to global weather patterns that influence rainfall, droughts and temperatures across several continents.
La Niña Weakens as Neutral Conditions Take Hold
According to the WMO update, there is about a 55% probability that a weak La Niña could influence weather during the December 2025 to February 2026 period. La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual, influencing global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
However, climate models indicate that the cooling phase is unlikely to persist for long. Forecasts show that the likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions rises to between 65 – 75% for January to March and February to April 2026. This shift means that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to move closer to average levels, reducing the direct influence of either La Niña or El Niño on the global climate system.
What Neutral ENSO Means for Global Weather
ENSO neutral conditions occur when ocean and atmospheric patterns in the equatorial Pacific remain close to their long-term averages. During such periods, global weather patterns tend to be influenced by a wider mix of regional climate drivers rather than a single dominant ocean signal.
Even so, the WMO notes that the fading of La Niña does not guarantee cooler conditions worldwide. Despite the cooling influence typically associated with La Niña events, many regions are still expected to experience above normal temperatures, reflecting the ongoing influence of long term global warming.
The ENSO cycle is one of the most important natural drivers of year to year climate variability. It can influence rainfall across Asia and Africa, drought patterns in the Americas and tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific. As a result, seasonal forecasts based on ENSO conditions are widely used by governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare for floods, droughts and agricultural risks.
El Niño Chances Begin to Rise
While neutral conditions are expected to dominate in the near term, scientists say there are early signs that the probability of El Niño development may increase later in 2026, though forecasts remain uncertain at longer time scales.
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When it develops, it often brings warmer global temperatures and can influence rainfall patterns worldwide. Its impacts may include heavier rains in some regions and drought conditions in others.
The WMO emphasised that continuous monitoring of the Pacific Ocean is essential because the ENSO system can evolve quickly. Updated forecasts will help meteorological agencies and governments plan responses for sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy supply and disaster preparedness in the months ahead.
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