Seven Percent Is Not Enough: Why the World Needs More from China

China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has taken a significant step by announcing its first absolute target to cut emissions. In a statement to the United Nations in New York, President Xi Jinping committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions across China’s economy by 7–10% by 2035, with a promise to “strive to do better.” While the pledge marks a historic shift in China’s climate approach, experts remain divided on whether it goes far enough to meet global targets.

A Historic Moment in Climate Diplomacy

For years, China’s climate policies have been framed in terms of “peaking” emissions or improving efficiency, rather than setting concrete reduction targets. The latest announcement changes that narrative. For the first time, Beijing has committed to measurable cuts across all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.

President Xi’s statement stressed that these commitments are “China’s best efforts based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement.” The pledge builds on earlier goals: peaking emissions within this decade and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. Yet, the absence of clarity on when China’s emissions will peak leaves room for concern.

The Global Context: Divided Commitments

China’s new commitment comes at a politically charged moment. While Beijing is stepping forward, the United States has retreated from leadership under President Donald Trump, who dismissed climate change as a “con job.” This contrast highlights a broader challenge: the uneven pace of global climate action.

The timing of China’s pledge is also critical. The UN summit in New York precedes COP30 in Brazil later this year, where nations are expected to present updated climate pledges for 2035. These commitments form the backbone of the Paris Agreement, under which nearly 200 nations agreed to keep global warming well below 2°C—and ideally, under 1.5°C. According to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, achieving this requires “drastic reductions in the next few years.”

Why China’s Role Matters

As the world’s biggest polluter, China’s choices will largely determine whether the 1.5°C target remains within reach. In 2023, China accounted for 14 billion tonnes of emissions, more than a quarter of the global total. A 10% cut by 2035 would reduce emissions by about 1.4 billion tonnes annually—nearly four times the UK’s total yearly emissions.

However, climate scientists argue that such reductions fall short of what is needed. To stay aligned with the 1.5°C pathway, China would need to cut emissions by at least 30–50% by 2035. Anything less, critics warn, risks locking the world into more dangerous levels of warming.

Balancing Progress and Coal Dependency

China’s progress in renewables is undeniable. President Xi pledged to expand wind and solar to six times 2020 levels, boost forest stocks, and make “new energy vehicles” mainstream in auto sales. These steps reflect a broad effort to transform China’s energy system.

Yet, the elephant in the room remains coal. China continues to rely heavily on this fossil fuel, which powered record levels of electricity generation in 2024. Although early data from 2025 indicates a drop due to surging solar output, coal dependency remains a stumbling block on China’s road to decarbonization.

A Beginning, Not the End

Despite its limitations, China’s pledge represents a turning point. For decades, the nation’s emissions soared in parallel with its economic growth. Now, evidence suggests that emissions may be plateauing, with 2025 levels expected to be lower than in 2024. As Li Shuo notes, the new target signals “the beginning of decarbonisation after decades of rapid emissions growth.”

The real test will be whether China chooses to treat this goal as a minimum rather than a maximum—and whether other countries follow suit. With time running out to curb dangerous warming, every fraction of a degree matters.

References:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4y159190go

https://www.iea.org/countries/china/emissions

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/24/chinas-plans-to-cut-emission-too-weak-to-stave-off-global-catastrophe-say-experts

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