World heading towards severe water crisis, Climate Change a big factor 

By Vivek Saini 

Weather patterns are being increasingly disrupted by climate change, which also causes extreme weather events, uncertain water supply, exacerbates water scarcity, and contaminates water supplies. Such effects are significantly impacting people’s needs for both quantity and quality of water. Over the next 30 years, the world’s freshwater resources will be under stress due to a growing population and rising temperature, endangering the water supply for drinking, bathing, and food production. According to the study of recently released data from the World Resources Institute (WRI), by 2050, an additional billion people will reside in dry regions and water-stressed areas, where at least 40% of the renewable water supply is used annually. 

What has led to global water stress

The water demand is greater than the supply everywhere in the world. Since 1960, demand has more than doubled on a global scale. Growing populations and sectors like irrigated agriculture, livestock, energy generation, and manufacturing are frequently the cause of an increase in water demand. Meanwhile, inadequate water infrastructure spending, irresponsible water use practices, or increasing variability brought on by climate change can all impact the water supply.

Water stress, which measures the struggle over local water resources, is the ratio of water demand to renewable supply. A location is more susceptible to water shortages the smaller the difference between supply and demand. A nation is said to be under “extreme water stress” if it is using at least 80% of its supply and under “high water stress” if it is taking out 40%. Without intervention, water stress will only worsen, especially in areas with quickly expanding populations and economies. Interventions include investments in water infrastructure and better water governance.

Water availability in India and the global climate crisis

Data reveals that 25 countries are subject to extremely high water stress each year, which means they use more than 80% of their renewable water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. These areas are in danger of running out of water even from short-term droughts, sometimes forcing governments to turn off the faucets. This scenario has already been reported in many locations worldwide, including England, India, Iran, Mexico, and South Africa. The five most water-stressed nations are Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, and Qatar. Low supplies combined with high demand from residential, agricultural, and industrial use are mostly to blame for the water stress in these nations. The most severely water-stressed areas are the Middle East and North Africa, where 83% of the population is affected, and South Asia, where 74% is affected.

When summer arrives, water in India becomes a precious commodity on par with gold. The nation is among the most water-stressed in the world because it only possesses 4% of its water resources compared to its 18% population. The government’s policy think tank, the NITI Aayog, stated that nearly 600 million people in India are experiencing severe to acute water stress due to the most extensive water crisis the country has ever experienced. 

A significant portion of Indians experience high to extreme water stress. This difficulty is exacerbated by India’s reliance on a monsoon that is becoming more unpredictable for its water needs. Even as the country experiences more floods and droughts, climate change is likely to make this demand for water resources worse.

Effect on India and other countries 

Climate change and water are intricately intertwined. The complicated effects of climate change on water availability are well known. The majority of the impacts of climate change are related to water, including erratic rainfall patterns, decreasing ice sheets, rising sea levels, floods, and droughts. As temperatures rise, it disrupts precipitation patterns and the entire water cycle, aggravating both water scarcity and water-related dangers (such as floods and droughts). 

Researchers believe these water shortages will impact massive Asian economies like India and China. Water scarcity is viewed as the most serious and potentially impactful component of the more significant climate catastrophe. Water scarcity can cause industrial disruptions, energy outages, and agricultural production losses, as seen in India, where a lack of water to cool thermal power plants resulted in the loss of 8.2 terawatt-hours of energy between 2017 – 2021, or enough electricity to power 1.5 million Indian households for five years. According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, failing to implement better water management policies might result in GDP losses of 7% to 12% in India, China, and Central Asia and 6% in much of Africa by 2050.

Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said that Asia is experiencing the most rapid rates of urbanization, and this would require a copious amount of water. “It’s not just the old industries like steel making, but newer ones like manufacturing semiconductor chips and the transition to clean energy that will require a lot of water,” he added. “Asia is the world’s growth engine, and these industries are new drivers for its economic growth.” 

Impact on economy and food production 

Data from Aqueduct estimates that 31% of the world’s GDP, or $70 trillion, would be subject to significant water stress by 2050, up from $15 trillion (24% of the world’s GDP) in 2010. In 2050, just four nations—India, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey—will account for more than half of the total GDP. By 2050, India is expected to experience severe water scarcity. Although industry accounts for most of India’s GDP, agriculture consumes approximately 90% of the country’s water. Groundwater provides two-thirds of India’s irrigation needs and 80% of domestic water needs, contributing to the considerable groundwater depletion rate. Despite having one of the world’s largest irrigation systems, India is distinguished by inefficient water utilization. 

Water scarcity is anticipated to raise the shadow price of irrigation water in India from 44% to 11%. Water scarcity would reduce rice and wheat output, two main staple crops in India. Due to water constraints, some agricultural production will likely move from irrigation to rainfed agriculture. This will increase future vulnerability to drought and heat extremes.

India is on the verge of severe water scarcity due to its fast-growing population and urbanization, widening the gap between the availability and demand for freshwater. The water shortage problem is dynamic and multifaceted, resulting from the interaction of climate change, basin-level water supplies, and the adaptive capacities of management systems. 

References:

1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/water-scarcity-map-solutions/
2. https://www.wri.org/insights/highest-water-stressed-countries?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template
3. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/brief/world-water-day-2022-how-india-is-addressing-its-water-needs
4. https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=195635#:~:text=NITI%20Aayog%20Report%20on%20Water%20Crisis&text=The%20report%20titled%20%E2%80%9CComposite%20Water,high%20to%20extreme%20water%20stress.
5. https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/water-and-climate-change
6. https://www.unicef.org/stories/water-and-climate-change-10-things-you-should-know
7. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/parched-power-india-0130.pdf
8. https://www.wri.org/insights/water-challenges-energy-sector-india
9. https://www.wri.org/initiatives/global-commission-adaptation/adapt-now-report
10. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/13/water-scarcity-china-and-india-look-the-most-threatened-from-shortages.html
11. https://www.oecd.org/policy-briefs/India-Improving-Water-Security.pdf
12. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205591/files/AAEA_2015_India_Final.pdf
13. Image source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/man-drinking-water-from-drinking-fountain-1362909/

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