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By Aayushi Sharma
The present weather conditions bear a striking resemblance to the phase typically associated with the monsoon withdrawal, even though the monsoon season has yet to conclude. August 2023 saw India receiving a mere 36% of its usual rainfall, making it the driest August in over a century. Traditionally, August ranks as the second-highest rainfall month of the four-month monsoon period in India, with an average of 25.4 centimeters of precipitation following July’s 28 centimeters.
Data sourced from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reveals that August’s rainfall has fallen significantly below the norm across most regions of India. Notable exceptions include northeastern India, the Himalayan States, and select areas of Tamil Nadu. This departure from the norm is attributed to the strengthening of El Nino conditions and unfavorable atmospheric patterns in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Are all the monsoon months showing an unusual trend this year?
Affirmative. Data from the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) gridded dataset reveals that between June 1 (the typical commencement date) and July 16, India recorded a total precipitation of 315.2 millimeters. This places it as the 55th highest amount of rainfall observed in the past 123 years, within the timeframe for which this specific monsoon data is accessible. Remarkably, this rainfall figure falls roughly in the middle of the spectrum of monsoon seasons, considering that the average conclusion date for the monsoon is typically September 30. It closely mirrors the historical average of 302 millimeters documented between 1961 and 2010.
Scientists contend that climate change has been instrumental in reshaping monsoon patterns, leading to weakened atmospheric circulations. Consequently, India bore witness to a series of extreme weather events during the months of June and July, many of which set new records. The intensity of torrential rains increased significantly across the nation in July, as the monsoon approached the midpoint of its seasonal journey. In fact, data from 1,113 monitoring stations indicated instances of very heavy rainfall, while 205 stations reported occurrences of exceptionally heavy downpours during this period.
What has been the recorded trend of August in the past decades?
India hasn’t encountered such substantial August rainfall deficits since 2005, when the deficit reached approximately 25% of the average, and in 2009, a year marked by the country’s most severe drought in half a century, with August rainfall plummeting to 24% below the usual levels.
The cumulative impact of August’s rainfall has contributed to a nationwide deficit of 10%, with specific regional deficits of 17% in east and northeast India, 10% in central India, and 17% in southern India.
M. Mohapatra, the Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), highlighted a growing trend in the occurrence of “break days,” which are periods during the monsoon season (June to September) characterized by an absence of rainfall.
While the IMD’s forecast on July 31 had anticipated “below normal” rainfall for August, their meteorological models did not foresee the severity of the deficit that materialized. According to the agency’s projections, monsoon rainfall in September, the final month of the four-month monsoon season, is expected to fall within a 10% range of the typical 16.7 centimeters for the month.
How will this rain deficit month affect kharif crops in India?
The month of August, which is usually considered to be the height of the monsoon season, has had detrimental effects on many locations across the nation. The overall rainfall deficit for the entire nation as of August 29th was 9 percent. Particularly Maharashtra is struggling with a large shortfall of 57%.
Rice, sugarcane, soybeans and maize are summer crops that depend on monsoon rains, which are expected to be at their lowest level in the past eight years. Additionally, India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has cut back on shipments, pushing up prices to their highest level in 15 years.
Due to the exacerbated El Nino, an abnormally dry August has negatively impacted grain and oilseed crops throughout Asia, and forecasts for less rain in September are raising fears about potential supply disruptions.
Pulse production would be particularly impacted by lower irrigation coverage in large states. In the previous five months, the inflation rate for pulses has virtually doubled.
Expert’s opinion
Dr. M N Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told CFC India that, “Climate Change causes extreme precipitation events to increase, as we see every year with flash floods. Also, the length of dry spells increases due to climate change.
With the climate change, we should expect the variability of monsoon to increase, increase in heavy rains as well as dry/break spells and droughts.”
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