What is the latest IPCC “Synthesis Report” all about and the key takeaways for India

By Aayushi Sharma

Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its last report for the sixth assessment cycle. The IPCC is a United Nations-backed body that does periodic assessments of climate science. This time it has released the Synthesis Report which incorporates the findings of the five previous reports that it has released in the sixth assessment cycle since 2018. This report was released after a week-long negotiation in Switzerland with the approval of 195 countries.

What is in the IPCC’s Synthesis report?

The IPCC in its sixth assessment cycle has prepared the Synthesis report, three Special Reports, a report suggesting refining its methodology, and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) with contributions by its three Working Groups. 

The Synthesis Report is the last of the Sixth Assessment Report products, which was released on 20 March 2023 by the UNFCCC as mandated by Decision 1/CP.21. The year 2023 is taken as the period when all the member countries of the Paris Agreement will review progress towards its goals, mandatorily including the goal of maintaining global warming levels to below 2°C while simultaneously pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. 

This Report of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides an overview of the global state of awareness and knowledge on climate change science. While also emphasizing the latest results since the earlier publication in 2014 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The report is wholly based on the reports of the three Working Groups of the IPCC, along with the following reports:

• Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC (SR15)

• Special Report: Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)

• Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)

• Methodology Report: 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC

The synthesis report provides an integrated view of climate change as part of the AR6. The AR6 Synthesis Report document primarily consists of (a) a non-technical Summary for Policymakers and (b) a Longer detailed Report. 

How is this report of global significance? 

The Synthesis Report is meant to address a wide range of policy-relevant scientific questions related to climate change. It will provide policymakers with useful and high-level information with an up-to-date understanding of climate change impacts and future risks. It will give a clear understanding of options for addressing and dealing with climate change impacts. The Synthesis Report will feed into next year’s UNFCCC Global Stocktake which is a primary component of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Moreover, it will play a lead role in monitoring its implementation and evaluating collective progress by member nations toward their agreed goals.

What is UNFCCC’s Global StockStake? Why does it matter?

The global stocktake of the Paris Agreement (GST) is a process for taking stock of the implementation of the Paris Agreement which was signed in 2015 by countries with the aim to assess the world’s collective progress towards achieving the purpose of the agreement and its long-term goals. 

The Paris Agreement mandates member countries to set their own targets to cut emissions and adapt to mitigate climate change impacts. It also established a process for members to continually strengthen their national climate targets. These national climate change plans are formally known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

To ensure accountability, countries agreed to timely report and review their efforts and join hands for their collective progress. 

The global stocktake will play a good role in helping national governments to analyze their achievements so far, as well as, lay emphasis on remaining targets, identify what more needs to be done to meet their respective targets and highlight opportunities to increase their aim on climate action.

The global stocktake is of great significance because the international community has yet to live up to its commitments and climate action has yet to reflect deep transformations needed across all sectors to build a resilient future.

Last year’s NDC Synthesis Report confirmed that the world is still far off the trajectory of stabilizing global temperature rise at 1.5 degrees. The report shows the available NDCs of all 192 member countries taken together will result in a sizable increase in global greenhouse emissions in 2030, compared to 2010, of about 16%. Some findings by the IPCC show that such an increase may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century.

Indian Context

The findings of the synthesis report that the natural ecosystem’s climate-mitigating potential is second only to solar power. Thus, instead of restoring ecosystems, it is better to not degrade existing ecosystems. This is in contrast to India’s afforestation policy which allows a patch of forest to be cleared and replaced by planting trees somewhere else. “Within the climate action ecosystem, [the report’s finding] also means that climate action, such as technologies to combat climate change, renewable energy farms, etc. should not come at the cost of natural ecosystems,” conservation biologist Neha Sinha said. 

Aditi Mukherjee, co-author of the report said, “South Asia is a climate hotspot and the Indian subcontinent did not really need an IPCC report to tell us how climate exposed the region is.” Mukherjee further said, “Even though our per capita emissions are less, and we have historically, much less responsibility. But the reality is India is at the forefront of impacts. We simply cannot say that because we haven’t emitted much, we are not the ones to take action. I think the report makes it clear. Everybody has to take action according to their national context and circumstances urgently.”

“We are already at approximately 1.1 degree Celsius over pre-industrial level temperatures. What it simply means is that any additional warming is going to have an adverse impact. So there are going to be losses and damages on different systems. In this report, we talk of loss and damages to biodiversity, livelihood, water security, energy security etc.,” Professor Joyashree Roy, another author of the Synthesis report, said.

The report highlights an urgent need to deal with the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. It is important to note that 67% of the irrigation and 80% of the drinking water in India is groundwater which is a major source of freshwater in India and is a key component in determining agricultural produce.

An analysis of the sixth assessment report has warned that Maharashtra will witness an increase in heat waves followed by water scarcity and floods. Further, 33% of people in India live with water scarcity which is likely to elevate to 40% by 2050 due to climate change. 

Indian Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav said that the report shares its vision with the ‘Mission LiFE’ initiative of India. “The report confirms climate change as one of the key environmental challenges facing humanity. The Synthesis Report for Policy Makers endorses India’s call for equity and climate justice,” Yadav further said. 

Other key findings 

• It is estimated that for any future warming level, most of the climate-related risks are higher than assessed in the AR5 report, and it also projected long-term impacts which are multiple times higher than currently observed.
• With every increment of global warming, risks involved due to climate change escalate, especially related to loss and damage. In the future, both climatic and non-climatic risks will interact at an increasing rate, which will be more complex and ardent to manage.
• Several mitigation options which are also sustainable like solar energy, wind energy,  urban green infrastructure,  electrification of urban systems, energy efficiency,  improved forest- and crop/grassland management, demand-side management, and reduced food waste and loss, are being supported by the public as they are also becoming cost-effective. The period from 2010– 2019 witnessed a sustained decrease in the unit costs of wind energy (55%), solar energy (85%), and lithium-ion batteries (85%).  
• There is an urgent need to limit the use of fossil fuels, expand the clean energy infrastructure, increase finance to climate investments, reduce pollution from agriculture due to nitrogen, reduce food waste, adapt low-carbon lifestyles, and much more.
• Government policies should focus on climate-resilient development, building capacity, and allowing acceptable solutions by drawing on diverse knowledge and cultural values, engaging indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge. 
• Policy coverage was found to be uneven across different sectors. An implementation gap is seen in policies implemented by the end of 2020.  These policies are projected to result in higher global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 than the emissions predicted by NDCs. 
• Most of the developed countries lag in the adoption of low-emission technologies due in part to limited climate-related finance, technological advancement, and capacity. Emission reduction can be done by removing fossil fuel subsidies. It will yield benefits like improved public revenue, macroeconomic and sustainability performance. 
• International cooperation is crucial for achieving climate-resilient development. Equitable access to domestic and international finance will act as a catalyst in adaptation and climate-resilient development.

References:

1. https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
2. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
3. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/ipcc-synthesis-key-takeaways-8510544/
4. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/ipcc-meet-in-switzerland-significance-likely-impact-8497374/
5. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/14/ipcc-the-climate-handbook-for-a-liveable-future
6. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134537
7. https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/11/25/ipcc-circulates-final-draft-ar6-synthesis-report/
8. https://www.ipcc.ch/ar6-syr/
9. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2020/05/2020-AC6_en.pdf
10. https://www.fao.org/3/al816e/al816e00.pdf
11. https://m.timesofindia.com/india/ipcc-synthesis-report-endorses-indias-call-for-climate-justice-and-equity-bhupender-yadav/articleshow/98847194.cms
12. Image source: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement