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By Vivek Saini
As we look out the window, on a scorching hot day, the idea of changing the weather seems so welcome! Well, such technology has been around for some time and is now back in public discourse. The technology called Cloud seeding, which involves adding stuff to clouds to make them produce rain, has become a hot topic following the recent Dubai deluge.
Fascinating but also controversial, Cloud seeding isn’t just about tinkering with the weather; it’s about toying with the delicate balance of nature and our place within it. It beckons us to consider the potential benefits and the unforeseen consequences that may accompany our attempts to alter the course of natural phenomena. Cloud seeding tries to help nature by giving clouds something to form raindrops around. But it also brings up some critical questions:
Could it help with droughts or stop forest fires?
Could it make it rain too much and cause floods?
We don’t have simple answers to these questions because making clouds do what we want is still tricky.
Flooded Dubai: Beyond the headlines and the cloud seeding controversy
On April 16th, 2024, a torrential downpour engulfed Dubai, a city known for its arid climate, turning its bustling streets into raging flash floods. The unprecedented event, captured in images and videos of stranded travellers and submerged vehicles, sparked a wave of confusion and questions.
Amidst the chaos, initial speculation pointed towards cloud seeding, a technique that uses airborne chemicals to manipulate clouds and potentially enhance rainfall. As the Emirates News Agency documented, the UAE became the centre of this controversy with its well-established cloud seeding program. The question on everybody’s mind was could this program have played a role in the recent downpour?
However, the narrative took an unexpected turn when the UAE government issued a statement denying any cloud seeding activity in the days before the floods. This denial created uncertainty and highlighted the complexities of attributing such extreme weather events to specific interventions.
Was the denial a matter-of-fact statement, or were other factors at play?
Experts Weigh In Climate Change as a Potential Culprit
Adding weight to the argument against cloud seeding as the sole cause of the Dubai floods, Sri Lanka’s Director General of Meteorology, Athula Karunanayake, offers a compelling perspective. While interacting with CFC, Karunanayake emphasises the increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide, stating: “This incident can be described as an extreme event resulting from climate change and global warming. Along with climate change, there is a possibility for such extreme events to take place anywhere in the world, unexpectedly.”
Karunanayake acknowledges the sophistication of the UAE’s meteorological technology but highlights the inherent limitations in predicting these unexpected occurrences. He reinforces this point by stating: “Though UAE has many developed technologies for meteorological measurements and forecasting, these unexpected events can take place without any sign to capture.”
Furthermore, Karunanayake sheds light on the limitations of cloud seeding. He clarifies that while cloud seeding can increase rainfall, it typically produces only modest amounts, stating: “However, such rainfall can not be formed by cloud seeding. Cloud seeding can not normally produce such heavy rainfall. It can only increase rainfall from a few amounts.” He argues that triggering floods with cloud seeding would be impractical and expensive: “If someone tried to get heavy rainfall from cloud seeding, it would be a costly process.” Finally, considering Dubai’s experience with the technology, Karunanayake believes they wouldn’t have attempted such a risky strategy: “Dubai is an area with a good experience in cloud seeding, and they would never try to get heavy rainfall which may cause flood. So, there is less possibility that this flood was caused by cloud seeding.”
Cloud seeding: Can we make it rain?
The cloud seeding industry has long been debated. Advocates point to its effectiveness, citing studies suggesting a 10-15% increase in rainfall. Conversely, sceptics sound cautionary alarms, emphasising potential risks to public safety and the environment. Decades of research have produced static and dynamic seeding techniques, showing promising signs of efficacy by the late 1990s.
Cloud seeding, the technology that ignited discussions after the Dubai floods, has captured global attention. Can it become a reliable weapon against drought, offering much-needed rain to parched regions?
While manipulating clouds for precipitation seems like something out of a futuristic film, cloud seeding presents a potentially valuable tool for water management. However, it is essential to dissect its limitations and the ongoing debate surrounding its use.
Cloud seeding hinges on a fascinating phenomenon – supercooled water droplets. These tiny pockets of liquid water defy expectations, existing within clouds at frigid temperatures below freezing. This peculiarity forms the basis of cloud seeding. Scientists introduce catalysts into these clouds as miniscule particles like silver iodide or dry ice. These particles act as ice nuclei, attracting water vapor and triggering the formation of ice crystals. As these ice crystals grow, they collide with the supercooled water droplets, causing them to freeze. Eventually, these larger and heavier ice crystals become too much for the cloud to support, falling to Earth as rain or snow.
Deployment Methods: There are two primary methods for deploying cloud seeding:
- Aerial Seeding: Aircraft with flares containing silver iodide or dry ice pellets soar through the skies. They then target suitable clouds, dispersing the seeding agents directly into their midst.
- Ground-Based Seeding: Generators positioned on the ground release the seeding agents. These generators rely on wind currents to carry the agents upwards and into the target clouds.
A Hopeful, Yet Imperfect, Answer to Drought: Cloud seeding offers hope for regions battling water scarcity. Imagine parched farmlands receiving a vital boost in precipitation or drought-stricken cities replenishing their water reserves. However, the effectiveness of cloud seeding is not a guaranteed success story. Specificity is Crucial because not all clouds are created equal. Cloud seeding is only effective on specific cloud formations with a high concentration of supercooled water droplets. This means careful selection of target clouds is essential for successful cloud seeding operations.
The Future of Precipitation Management: Beyond Cloud Seeding
Cloud seeding offers a glimpse into the world of weather manipulation, but it’s not the only act in the play. Researchers are exploring a more comprehensive range of precipitation management techniques as we grapple with water scarcity and extreme weather events. Here’s a peek into what the future might hold:
- Fog Harvesting: This technique captures moisture from fog using large mesh nets. The collected water can then be used for irrigation or water supply in arid regions. Fog harvesting promises to provide a sustainable water source in areas with frequent fog occurrences.
- Hygroscopic Seeding: This method utilizes microscopic salt particles sprayed into clouds. These particles attract water vapor, promoting the growth of cloud droplets and potentially enhancing precipitation. Hygroscopic seeding is a promising area of research, but further studies are needed to determine its effectiveness and optimal use.
- Targeted Rainfall Enhancement: This futuristic concept involves manipulating atmospheric conditions to steer precipitation towards specific regions. While still in the theoretical stages, research is ongoing to explore the feasibility of such techniques. Targeted rainfall enhancement remains highly theoretical, but continued research may shed light on its potential.
However, ethical considerations remain paramount as we explore these new frontiers. Open scientific dialogue, environmental impact assessments, and international collaboration will ensure the responsible development and deployment of these technologies. Cloud seeding may be just the beginning. Navigating the scientific complexities and ethical considerations will be essential as we delve deeper into precipitation management. By fostering international cooperation and prioritizing responsible development, we can explore the potential of these technologies to create a more sustainable future with a secure water supply.
Also Read: Dubai’s Climate Crisis: Unprecedented deluge and flooding exposes city’s vulnerability
References:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/uae-denies-cloud-seeding-took-place-before-severe-dubai-floods.html
https://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/bos/supdocs/98332.pdf
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/08/230816114231.htm
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.7b06373
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46341-5
https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/publications/2009/geoengineering-climate
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