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For decades, the vast wheat fields of India have been the backbone of the nation’s food supply, but climate change is now casting a long shadow over these fields. With the country experiencing its hottest February in over a century, the heat is pushing the limits of what farmers can endure. In key wheat-producing states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Madhya Pradesh, rising temperatures threaten to reduce crop yields, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions. As the harvest season approaches, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India finds itself facing not just a food crisis, but an economic one too.
Major Wheat-Producing States in India
India’s wheat production is concentrated in a few key states, where favorable agro-climatic conditions, fertile soil, and developed irrigation infrastructure support high yields. Among the largest producers, Uttar Pradesh leads, contributing approximately 31.77% of India’s total wheat output. Districts like Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, and Agra are prime examples where traditional and modern farming practices combine to produce a substantial portion of the national harvest.
Madhya Pradesh is the second-largest wheat producer, accounting for 20.98% of the country’s output. The state’s Malwa plateau region, known for its black soil and moderate temperatures, provides optimal conditions for wheat cultivation. Punjab, often referred to as the “Granary of India,” ranks third, contributing 13.87% to the national production. Here, advanced farming techniques and a robust irrigation system have led to consistently high productivity levels.
These states are at the heart of India’s wheat economy, and any disruption in wheat production here can have cascading effects on the entire country’s food security and economy.
Why Are These Regions Ideal for Wheat Cultivation?
Several factors contribute to the prominence of these states in wheat production, making them highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change:
- Agro-Climatic Conditions: Wheat thrives in cool winters and warm summers. The Rabi season, which typically begins in November and ends with the harvest in March or April, aligns perfectly with the climatic conditions of these regions. However, rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns due to climate change are threatening to disrupt this delicate balance.
- Fertile Soil: The fertile alluvial soil of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, combined with the black soil of Madhya Pradesh, retains moisture and provides essential nutrients that support healthy wheat crops. These soils are ideal for irrigated farming, which is crucial for ensuring consistent yields.
- Irrigation Facilities: The presence of extensive canal networks and groundwater irrigation systems, especially in Punjab, has been key to sustaining wheat production. In Punjab, the Bhakra Nangal Dam plays a pivotal role in providing water to the crops throughout the year. However, climate-induced changes in water availability and erratic rainfall threaten the sustainability of these irrigation systems.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Wheat Production
India’s wheat production is increasingly under threat due to the rising incidence of extreme heat during the growing and harvesting seasons. The most significant concern is the surge in temperatures during March and April, the critical months for wheat harvesting. When temperatures rise too quickly, it accelerates the wheat crop’s ripening process, reducing the grain-filling period and leading to lighter grains. This results in a decline in yield, as well as a reduction in grain quality.
For instance, in 2022, India experienced a heatwave in March, causing a sharp decline in wheat production. The projected output of 111 million tonnes fell to about 107 million tonnes. Such reductions in yield are concerning because wheat is a staple food for millions of Indians. As temperatures continue to rise, the negative effects on wheat production are expected to intensify.
The Economic and Social Consequences of Declining Wheat Production
The decline in wheat production due to extreme heat has serious implications for India’s food security, the livelihoods of farmers, and the broader economy.
- Impact on Food Security: Wheat is a crucial part of the Indian diet, particularly for low-income households that depend on it as a staple. A reduction in wheat output means a potential shortage of affordable wheat flour and bread, leading to price hikes. This would disproportionately affect the poor, making it harder for them to access basic food. In 2025, predictions suggest that a 6-10% decline in wheat and rice production could push millions of vulnerable individuals further into food insecurity.
- Economic Losses for Farmers: The rising heat and changing weather patterns impose additional financial burdens on farmers. Farmers already grapple with fluctuating yields, and the rising costs of irrigation, fertilizers, and pest control in the face of extreme temperatures further exacerbate their struggles. In 2023, farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan reported substantial losses due to unexpected heatwaves during the grain-filling stage. For these farmers, the increase in production costs and the decrease in yields mean they are left with reduced incomes, further deepening their financial distress.
- Disruptions in Government Procurement: The government of India runs the Public Distribution System (PDS), which relies heavily on wheat procurement from states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Madhya Pradesh. A decline in wheat production means that the government will struggle to meet the demand for PDS supplies. Additionally, wheat exports, a significant source of revenue for India, could be impacted, as seen in 2022 when India had to ban wheat exports to ensure adequate domestic supply. This disruption affects global wheat markets and weakens India’s trade position.
- Impact on Livelihoods of Poor Farmers: One of the most concerning aspects of climate change is its disproportionate impact on the poorest farmers. Studies have shown that a 1°C increase in long-term temperatures can lead to a 53% increase in farm incomes for poor households, but a 33% decrease in off-farm incomes. This disparity means that poor farmers who rely on multiple sources of income, including non-farming activities, are at greater risk. As wheat production declines, these households face not only the loss of their primary crop but also a reduction in secondary income streams, pushing them further into poverty.
India’s Wheat Fields Facing an Uncertain Future
The decline in wheat production due to climate change poses a grave threat to India’s food security and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. The impacts are felt most acutely in the country’s major wheat-producing states, where a combination of rising temperatures, reduced grain quality, and increased costs of production is already harming agricultural output. The effects of these changes ripple through the economy, affecting food prices, government procurement systems, and global trade.
As India faces these growing challenges, it is essential to develop adaptive strategies, such as improving irrigation infrastructure, investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, and enhancing weather forecasting systems. Without proactive measures, the livelihoods of millions of farmers, particularly those in vulnerable regions, will continue to be at risk. Addressing the climate crisis is not just an environmental issue—it is a pressing socio-economic concern that demands immediate and sustained attention.
References:
https://www.fao.org/india/fao-in-india/india-at-a-glance/en
11 Major Problems Faced By Indian Farmers In Agriculture In 2024
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-90673-3_4
Map Source: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=IN&crop=Wheat
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