‘The Climate has always been changing’ argument is pointless!

CLAIM

Climate has always been changing and it always will. The present pattern of climate change is nothing but a natural phenomenon and is no different. 

FACT

The Claim is Misleading. It misrepresents past periods of climate anomalies as similar to the current unprecedented pattern of climate change at a global level which is not natural. 

SOURCE OF THE CLAIM

We came across multiple YouTube videos which make the same claim: 

WHAT THEY SAY

One of the most common statements made as a part of the ‘climate change denial’ narrative is that, ‘climate has always been changing and it always will’. It is argued by many that climate change is nothing but seasonal changes which might vary in terms of extremities from one year to another year. Many believe and stress that it is but natural phenomena and human intervention can play no role in such happenings. 

WHAT WE FOUND

Interpreting climate anomalies of the past as similar to the present scenario of climate change is wrong. Multiple scientific research and findings point out the fact that climate change is real and it is unlike anything that had happened in the distant past. 

REGIONAL VS GLOBAL

Scientists have found that climate changes in the past were regional, not global like at present. This has been confirmed by a study published in the journal, Nature. “This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years,” the author writes. 

According to the research, in earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has definitely changed to a great extent but past cool-downs and warm-ups were regional, driven by natural forces. On the other hand, currently, temperatures are rising concurrently across the globe as 98% of Earth’s surface has been found to be hotter at the end of the 20th century than at any given point in time in the last 2000 years before that, the same study states. 

Cold and warm snaps of the past were regional, unlike current global warming

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AT UNPRECEDENTED HIGH

Global average surface temperatures are now at their highest since we started recording them. 17 of the 18 warmest years on record have taken place post-2001. The average global temperature has increased by at least 1.1° Celsius since 1880, according to an ongoing temperature analysis led by scientists at NASA.

India recently recorded its warmest March (average temperature) in 121 years. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the maximum temperature was recorded as 1.86°C above normal. This rapid rise in temperature can no longer be explained by arguments involving natural cycles of warming-cooling. Climate change is believed to be the reason behind the recent extreme early heat which gripped large parts of India in 2022. A new attribution study by climate scientists states that the 2022 Indian heat wave was made 30 times more likely because of climate change. 

EARTH IS WARMING FASTER THAN NEVER BEFORE

Over the past million years, as Earth grew warmer post-ice-age, the rate of rising in global temperature was a total of 4-7 degrees Celsius over about 5000 years. However, in the last 100 years alone, a 0.7-degree Celsius rise in temperature has been recorded which is approximately ten times faster. In other words, the kind of change that would normally take place over hundreds of thousands of years is now occurring in decades. 

Temperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.) 

Source: earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 

NATURAL VS MAN-MADE

It has come to light that this abnormal faster warming is directly proportional to the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is increasing at a significant rate post-industrial revolution. Earth’s average temperature is thus increasing drastically because of human activities and cannot be shrugged off as mere natural phenomena. Therefore, climate change in the present times cannot be termed natural and is definitely man-made. This highlights the causal link between carbon dioxide emissions from human activity and the 1.28 degree Celsius (and rising) global temperature increase since preindustrial times.

In an article published by NASA with the headline, “Climate Change: How Do We Know?”, they have cited evidence to state that, “Direct observations made on and above Earth’s surface show the planet’s climate is significantly changing. Human activities are the primary driver of those changes.”

The article further states, “The current warming trend is of particular significance because it is unequivocally the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over millennia. It is undeniable that human activities have warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land and that widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.”

Natural climatic variations are something which cannot be linked with the human-induced climatic variations of the present. This article published in the Quanta Magazine with the headline, “How Earth’s Climate Changes Naturally (and Why Things Are Different Now)” states 10 ways climate varies naturally, and how each compares with what’s happening now. 

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