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By Vivek Saini
Claim
Graph shows that the minimum level of Arctic ice in September 2023 is more than the September 2005 level proving that emission-driven melting is a hoax.
Fact
False. The trend line, a dashed gray line in the particular graph, clearly shows the decrease in the overall sea ice extent. Moreover, the Arctic is warming rapidly like never before, according to numerous research, leading to dangerously low sea ice levels.
Claim post:
What does the post say
In his viral X post (formerly twitter), climate science contrarian Steve Milloy cited an anomaly graph by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado, showing the monthly arctic sea ice extent to claim that the minimum level of Arctic ice in September 2023 is more than the September 2005 level. He counted the emission during this period as 860 billion tonnes and further claimed that emission-driving melting is a hoax.
What we found
Steve Milloy misinterpreted the graph published by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). This graph explains the purpose and content of the “monthly Sea Ice Index,” a resource for tracking changes in Arctic sea ice. It offers data on ice extent and concentration dating back to 1979.
It represents monthly anomalies in ice extent. Anomalies show how much the ice extent for a given month differs from the average extent for that specific month from January 1981 to December 2010. The data points on the graph are marked as plus signs, and a dashed gray line represents the trend in these anomalies over time, which shows the decrease in the overall sea ice extent. This graph helps visualize and understand how Arctic sea ice has changed with its historical averages.
Why emission-driven melting is not a hoax
Various research findings indicate that the rate of temperature increase in the Arctic is significantly higher than previously thought, rendering the region more susceptible to the impacts of human-induced global warming. The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is a concerning consequence, heightening the potential for a summer devoid of ice in the foreseeable future. Currently, Arctic sea ice is diminishing at a rate of 12.6% per decade, a stark contrast to its typical extent from 1981 to 2010.
Specifically, the decline of glaciers worldwide since the early 1900s can be primarily attributed to human activities, notably carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gasses resulting from the Industrial Revolution. These emissions have caused a significant rise in global temperatures, particularly in polar regions, leading to the rapid melting, breaking off, and shrinking of glaciers on land and in the sea. The factors driving the melting of Arctic ice are complex and interconnected:
1. Climate Change: The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide and methane, has led to a rise in global temperatures, with profound effects on Arctic ice.
2. Albedo Effect: As Arctic ice melts, it exposes darker ocean water underneath, which absorbs more heat, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of ice melt.
3. Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: Variations in atmospheric circulation can influence Arctic temperatures by redistributing warm and cold air masses.
4. Feedback Loops: Arctic ice melt can trigger feedback mechanisms, such as freshwater release disrupting ocean currents, further altering the climate.
5. Black Carbon Deposition: The deposition of black carbon (soot) on ice reduces its reflectivity, intensifying heat absorption and melting.
6. Human Activities: Shipping, oil and gas extraction, and tourism in the Arctic contribute to ice melt through emissions, pollutant release, and physical ice disturbance.
Understanding these complex factors is crucial for addressing the underlying causes, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the immediate impacts of Arctic ice loss. Despite substantial emissions reduction efforts, it is anticipated that more than a third of the remaining glaciers globally will undergo melting before the year 2100. Regarding sea ice, an alarming statistic indicates that 95% of the Arctic’s oldest and thickest ice has already disappeared.
Melting Arctic Glaciers Reveal Methane Source
As the Arctic region experiences rising temperatures, diminishing ice glaciers reveal underground springs that contain a potentially underestimated reservoir of the potent greenhouse gas methane. A study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, has uncovered substantial quantities of methane gas escaping from these groundwater springs exposed by melting glaciers.
This research indicates that methane emissions from these sources will likely increase as Arctic glaciers recede and more of these springs become visible. These emissions, combined with other methane releases resulting from the thawing of ice and frozen ground in the Arctic, can potentially worsen global warming. Scientists are concerned that the additional methane emissions unleashed as the Arctic thaws could intensify human-induced global warming. Notably, the springs studied by the researchers were not previously identified as a potential methane emission source.
Professor Andrew Hodson, a co-author of the study from the University Centre in Svalbard, remarked, “Residing in Svalbard puts you directly at the forefront of Arctic climate change. Witnessing methane being released right before your eyes in the area where a glacier is retreating is a compelling and sobering experience.”
Ice-free Arctic summers by 2050
According to a new analysis using global climate models and continuous satellite observations from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative, it is predicted that most of the Arctic Ocean could lose its summer sea ice cover by the year 2050. This forecast underscores that the fate of the Arctic’s sea ice is closely tied to future carbon dioxide emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice, which grows during the winter and recedes during the warmer months, with its lowest extent typically in September, has been affected by the trend of more ice melting in summers and less forming in winters since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. In 2019, for instance, the minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September was the second lowest in the satellite record spanning 40 years.
In a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists from 21 research institutes used 40 different global climate models to simulate the future of Arctic sea ice. These models accounted for various scenarios, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The study’s findings suggest that, in most of these simulations, the Arctic Ocean is expected to have less than 1 million square kilometers of ice (a threshold typically considered ice-free) during summers before 2050, even with significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The project coordinator, Dirk Notz, from the University of Hamburg, has shared his perspective, saying, “These results quite take us back. Even if we make significant emissions reductions to keep global warming below 2°C, Arctic sea ice will still intermittently vanish during summers before 2050.” The anticipated loss of summer sea ice will have far-reaching environmental consequences. It will impact ocean circulation and accelerate Arctic warming. As sea ice diminishes, the open water areas absorb more heat, setting off a cycle of warming and melting, which has cascading effects on the region’s ecosystems and climate.
We have debunked false and misleading claims about climate change by Steve Milloy in the past:
- https://climatefactchecks.org/post-falsely-claims-that-arctic-ice-is-always-changing-emissions-are-irrelevant-and-climate-is-a-hoax/
- https://climatefactchecks.org/the-post-falsely-claims-that-geothermal-activities-are-responsible-for-warming-the-oceans/
If you have any queries or come across suspicious content related to climate change or the environment and want us to verify them, send them to Climate Buddy, our WhatsApp tipline +91 70453 66366.
References:
- https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1318201111
- https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.709896/full
- https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/definitions/arctic-sea-ice
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927816300284
- https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01210-6
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/glaciers-methane
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019GL086749
- https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/sea-ice/news-and-events/news/simulations-suggest-ice-free-arctic-summers-2050/
