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Sri Lanka faced a series of power cuts this year and continues to do so due to the ongoing energy crisis. Several factors, such as a lack of foreign reserves, finances to source fuel requirements, and technical issues at power plants, backed the power crisis.
Our Climate Fact Checks team investigated the potential of renewable energy in the country to overcome such problems in the future. We spoke to the General Manager at the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), Engineer M.R. Ranatunga, regarding the matter.
Electricity in Sri Lanka is generated using three primary sources: thermal power (which includes coal and fuel oil), hydropower, and other non-conventional renewable energy sources (solar power and wind power). The peak demand this year is forecasted to reach 2900 megawatts. In 2020, the peak demand was reported as 2717 megawatts.
Global energy demand and COP27
Global energy consumption es expected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 amid a slowing economy and high energy prices. Depletion of gas supplies and extreme weather events will force many countries to fall back on fossil fuels, delaying the green energy transition. EIU’s guide to energy in 2023 provides a comprehensive view of the challenges, opportunities and trends to watch over the coming year.
Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, are the most significant contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
According to the discussion at COP27, it was established that Fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of global energy production, but cleaner energy sources are gaining ground. About 29% of electricity currently comes from renewable sources. According to an article published by the United Nations following COP27,
- About 80% of the global population lives in countries that import fossil fuels.
- In 2018, air pollution from fossil fuels caused $2.9 trillion in health and economic costs, about $8 billion a day (World Health Organization)
- Electricity from renewable sources could provide 65% of the world’s total electricity supply by 2030. Moreover, it could decarbonise 90% of the power sector by 2050.
- A total of more than 30 million jobs could be created in clean energy, efficiency, and low-emissions technologies by 2030.
- The reduction of pollution and climate impacts alone could save the world up to $4.2 trillion per year by 2030.
Read more estimated statistics here Archived
NDCs and NDC actions in Power Sector
The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in Sri Lanka has presented several actions to achieve clean energy in the country.
- To achieve 70% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030.
- No capacity addition of Coal power plants.
These were some of the targets mentioned in the highlight of the amendment made in 2021.
Talking about the targets of achieving a carbon-free energy sector, Mr Ranatunga mentioned the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP). This report presents the results of the latest expansion planning studies conducted by the Transmission and Generation Planning Branch of the Ceylon Electricity Board for the planning period 2022-2041, replacing the Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan of 2018-2037. The total energy demand is forecasted to grow at a rate of 5.6% and the peak energy demand by 5.4% within these 20 years.
The peak demand is most stringent, says Mr Ranatunga since more fuel must be consumed to meet the excess demand. The plan includes the continuous addition of other renewable energy, including solar, wind, mini-hydro and biomass power. The predicted market by 2030 is an additional 3500 MW which other renewable energy sources will supply. The target to achieve 70% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030 is separate from the LTGEP. However, it is included in the Next Generation Plan set for 2023 – 2042, which is yet to be approved, said Mr Ranatunga. Additionally, the CEB has included a 4% unconditional and 16% conditional reduction of greenhouse gases from the NDC And no addition of coal power to the power generation is included in the LGTEP.
The planning strategies primarily discuss a base case, but this may vary depending on the various reference cases considered. One of the reference cases includes Nuclear Power, which is not included in the current plan, added Mr Ranatunga.
Settling the debts of CEB
Regarding the arrears amounting to 35 billion LKR, which was to be paid to the Federation of Renewable Energy (FRED) by the CEB. Mr Ranatunga mentioned that, even though the CEB has increased the tariff to 74%, it is still short of 300 billion LKR. The options left are either heading to a tariff revision, or the government should bail out the amount for the CEB.
Since the possibility of each action is unlikely to happen, the payment will be further delayed for all the suppliers by a few months, added Mr Ranatunga. He highlighted that due to inflation and the prevailing economic crisis, the CEB faces difficulty in paying up its debts. Read more about this here Archived
Promoting renewable energy in Sri Lanka
Regarding the actions taken to promote the installation of solar panels domestically, Mr Ranatunga stated that as a utility, the CEB guarantees to buy the energy produced by the household for 20 years. The government is responsible for giving financial incentives and assistance to the buyers of renewable energy sources.
However, many accusations were directed at CEB for showing reluctance to support households in installing solar panels during the past years. At present, with the facilitation of the Ministry of Power, CEB and Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SLSEA), the development of grid-scale solar P.V. power projects, small-scale distributed solar P.V. projects and rooftop solar P.V. is being installed at a commercial scale. Read more on the topic here
New initiatives in generating renewable energy
Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority is responsible for pioneering the sustainable energy revolution in Sri Lanka, with the aim to facilitate the development of the country’s energy resources, including solar, wind, water and bioenergy. They published Energy Balance 2019, which includes an extensive analysis of Sri Lanka’s energy performance.
Sri Lanka launched a Preliminary Report on the country’s Climate Prosperity Plan at COP27’s Climate Vulnerable Forum. The document outlines projects aiming to increase Sri Lanka’s renewable energy production from 35% to 70% by the end of the decade. In this, the targets highlighted are,
– Sri Lanka will be a net energy exporter by 2025
– Sri Lanka’s renewable energy production will exceed 100% of domestic power needs by 2040
In addition, Mr Ranatunga stated that Sri Lanka has potential for renewable energy projects, focusing on floating solar farms. He also noted that wind power could produce much-required energy. He also mentioned that even though geothermal energy is an option for generating electricity, in the context of Sri Lanka, it is not financially viable and does not have the necessary infrastructure.
The Renewable Energy Resource Development Plan for 2021-2026 includes large-scale renewable energy development projects and the planned projects for the upcoming years. This includes renewable energy resource maps and means of identifying potential land for such projects.
Mr Ranatunga concluded that Sri Lanka has great potential to develop renewable energy and would immensely benefit the economy, people and the environment if the set targets were achieved.
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