Indian Monsoon 2024: Signs of climate change in unusual excess/deficit

By Aayushi Sharma

The monsoon in Delhi broke the last 88 year record as 228.1 millimeters of rainfall (24-hour period) took place on a single day in the month of June. However, neighboring Chandigarh is seeing the largest rainfall deficit at 83 percent around the same time. Northeastern states are on high alert after incessant rainfall has led to heavy floods as Assam’s death toll went up to 92 till July 10, 2024.

India, thus, is experiencing unusual monsoon patterns in terms of deficit and excess across the country. 

What is the current scenario in various regions of the country?

The month of June witnessed a rainfall deficit of 33% in the northwestern region. This was compensated by heavy rainfall in the first week of July. However, Jharkhand is still dealing with a notable deficit exceeding 50 percent. 

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have reported a rainfall surplus of over 50 percent, with six other states also experiencing excess or significantly above-average rainfall. 

Heavy rains followed by extreme hailstorms swept across Manipur on 7th July leaving a trail of destruction. This hailstorm persisted for nearly 15 minutes and was so intense that it blanketed parts of the valley with 4-5 inches of hail. Bihar and Andhra Pradesh report deficits in reservoir levels exceeding 50 percent. Many regions of southern India are likely to get isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall in the second week of July as per IMD.

According to Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, “The cloud cluster that unleashed the Delhi rains 228 mm on 28th June. That’s three times the month’s rainfall in just a few hours. Warmer air holds more moisture for a longer time. So, it may not rain for several days but when it rains, it dumps a month’s or a season’s rain in a few hours.”

According to CEEW’s findings In the last forty years (1982-2022), 23 percent of districts, such as New Delhi, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Kachchh, Nilgiris, and Indore, have seen a high frequency of both deficient and excessive rainfall years. Over the past decade (2012-2022), 55 percent of tehsils saw a rise and 11 percent saw a decline in southwest monsoon rainfall by over 10 percent compared to the climatic baseline (1982-2011). There was a notable increase in rainfall observed in historically drier tehsils of Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and certain areas of Tamil Nadu, which was statistically significant. 

Impact on Crops

The impacts of climate change are evident, with 80 percent of marginal farmers experiencing extreme weather events in the past five years. Despite these shortfalls, Kharif crop sowing has risen by 33 percent as of June 28 compared to last year, with pulses and oilseeds showing significant increases in acreage. However, rice acreage remains steady at 2.2 million hectares. 

Food inflation remained high at over 8 percent in May and is expected to stay elevated, with rural inflation outpacing urban inflation for nearly a year. The agricultural sector is struggling, showing only 1.4 percent growth in FY24, down from 4.7 percent the previous year and below the long-term average of 3.7 percent.

Flood Havoc in the Northeastern Region

Assam’s flood situation is critical with over 24.50 lakh people affected. Major rivers in the region are flowing above the danger level. The flood-affected areas are facing a significant drinking water crisis. Kaziranga National Park has experienced its worst floods in recent years, leading to the deaths of 159 wild animals either by drowning or during rescue efforts, while 133 animals have been successfully rescued. In the Northeast region, a total of 3,331 houses have been reported damaged due to the current flood, with 209 completely destroyed and 3,122 partially damaged. 

Manipur CM N Biren Singh said “This is the second time after a hailstorm flood has taken place. This is very unfortunate…Two NDRF teams have already been sent with equipment. And here the state police force and the Assam rifles, all are getting involved. 24×7 all possible help the government is going to provide. And now rescue operations from the internal villages are taking place. I think we have to be a little bit careful if the rain is there. We have to be careful….”

References:

https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20240619_pr_3059.pdf

https://indianexpress.com/article/weather/india-weather-and-flood-live-update-9427771

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/heavy-rainfall-in-northwest-northeast-india-brings-overall-deficit-down-to-just-3-pc/articleshow/111492853.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/80-of-marginal-farmers-in-india-affected-by-adverse-climatic-events-report/articleshow/111264951.cms?from=mdr

Monsoon statistical-framework in India: excess in some parts and deficit in others

Image Source:

Photo by ThirdMan https://www.pexels.com/photo/lake-view-during-rainy-day-5538274/

Photo by Shalank Kamble https://unsplash.com/photos/view-of-mountains-under-dark-clouds-5supp5KRmzU

Photo by Vincenzo https://unsplash.com/photos/a-small-island-in-the-middle-of-a-body-of-water-BDbQct-9MXo