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In a major step towards advancing India’s weather and climate science capabilities, the Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved ‘Mission Mausam,’ an initiative led by the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Started with a financial outlay of ₹2,000 crore over the next two years, it aims to revolutionise India’s capacity in weather forecasting, climate research, and management of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change.
Three key institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences – the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), and the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) – will spearhead the implementation of Mission Mausam. They will work in collaboration with other national and international institutes, academia, and industries, elevating India’s leadership in weather and climate sciences on the global stage.
A multi-faceted approach
Mission Mausam envisions a multi-faceted approach to enhance India’s preparedness in tackling climate challenges. The mission will focus on advancing research and development in atmospheric sciences, emphasising weather surveillance, modelling, and forecasting. This will be supported by the integration of advanced observation systems, cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), and high-performance computing to improve prediction accuracy and real-time response.
By enhancing weather and climate observations, *Mission Mausam* will offer timely and precise information on critical aspects like monsoon behavior, air quality alerts, extreme weather events such as cyclones, and interventions for managing phenomena like fog, hail, and heavy rains. This will bolster India’s ability to mitigate the impacts of these events, safeguarding lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
A significant aspect of ‘Mission Mausam’ is the deployment of next-generation weather monitoring technologies. This includes new radar systems, satellite sensors, and supercomputers capable of processing vast amounts of meteorological data. The development of improved Earth system models and a GIS-based automated Decision Support System will ensure that real-time data reaches relevant stakeholders efficiently, aiding decision-making processes across sectors.
Sectoral Benefits
The mission’s impact will be felt across various sectors, from agriculture to disaster management, defence, aviation, and health. Farmers, for example, will benefit from accurate weather forecasts, enabling better crop planning and protection against extreme events. Similarly, sectors such as aviation and shipping will benefit from precise meteorological data to ensure safer operations. Additionally, the program will play a pivotal role in urban planning, energy management, and environmental monitoring.
Concerns about forecasting have been there
This development comes at a time when some concerns have been raised in recent years with forecasting single day rain events when the forecasting often seemed far milder than the extremity of the rain event. This has led to government agencies as well as the common people caught off guard.
“At a national level, our forecast accuracy for daily rainfall is 80% for the past 5 years and 60% for 5 days lead time forecast. But in July, overall, we had 88% forecast accuracy for daily rainfall mainly due to an improved decision support system compared to last year. We are incorporating much more data to arrive at our forecasts,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD was quoted by HT as saying.
“A multi-model ensemble is being used, interpretation has improved due to better capacity and methodologies used. There is an effort to improve and enhance observational systems including radars, automatic weather stations etc to improve the quality of data being fed into the models. That is why we are seeing an improvement of 10 to 15% in forecast accuracy in many places. We have shared our plan with the ministry of earth sciences. For extreme heat, on day 1 our accuracy is 91% but it reduces to 83% on day 2,” he added in the quote.
Experts have also argued earlier that the issue lies not in the technology but in data interpretation by forecasters. While IMD has access to advanced models, similar to those used in the US and UK, accurate predictions require precise analysis of satellite images and radar data. Moreover, climate change adds another layer of unpredictability, making accurate forecasting more difficult, they said.
Despite recent advancements, long-range forecasts remain a weakness for IMD, and further progress is needed to improve accuracy and preparedness in the face of extreme weather events. Mission Mausam represents an attempt by India to improve its ability to predict, respond to, and manage the impacts of climate change. With its focus on cutting-edge technology, capacity building, and cross-sectoral benefits, the mission will hopefully strengthen India’s resilience to extreme weather events, ultimately protecting its people, environment, and economy.
References:
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2053896
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